Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including those in June 2025 and February 2026, have extended Iran's estimated breakout timeline to roughly one year for producing a weapon if Tehran makes that decision, according to May 2026 US intelligence assessments. Ongoing bilateral negotiations focus on verifiable limits to uranium enrichment, transfer or dilution of Iran's approximately 970-pound stockpile of 60 percent enriched material, and IAEA access to damaged facilities, with no confirmed evidence of active weaponization efforts. These developments, combined with Iran's internal debates over deterrence options and the absence of any recent test or assembly indicators, underpin the market's strong consensus that acquisition of a nuclear device remains unlikely through the end of 2026.