Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus point to overnight lows near 27–28°C on July 6, driven by southeast monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-July climatology, where average minima hover around 26°C amid frequent cloud cover and moisture convergence that narrows day-to-day variability. Subtle differences in model timing of rain versus clearer intervals explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while lower readings would require stronger onshore winds or heavier nocturnal precipitation than currently projected. Official updates through July 5 will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?
27°C 28%
28°C 28%
30°C 23%
25°C 17%
신규
신규
2026.07.06
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
17%
26°C
16%
27°C
28%
28°C
28%
29°C
14%
30°C
23%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 28%
28°C 28%
30°C 23%
25°C 17%
신규
신규
2026.07.06
22°C or below
$155 거래량
<1%
23°C
$15 거래량
1%
24°C
$15 거래량
1%
25°C
$0 거래량
17%
26°C
$0 거래량
16%
27°C
$0 거래량
28%
28°C
$0 거래량
28%
29°C
$0 거래량
14%
30°C
$5 거래량
23%
31°C
$0 거래량
<1%
32°C or higher
$78 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus point to overnight lows near 27–28°C on July 6, driven by southeast monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-July climatology, where average minima hover around 26°C amid frequent cloud cover and moisture convergence that narrows day-to-day variability. Subtle differences in model timing of rain versus clearer intervals explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while lower readings would require stronger onshore winds or heavier nocturnal precipitation than currently projected. Official updates through July 5 will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$268종료일
2026.07.06마켓 개설일
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus point to overnight lows near 27–28°C on July 6, driven by southeast monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-July climatology, where average minima hover around 26°C amid frequent cloud cover and moisture convergence that narrows day-to-day variability. Subtle differences in model timing of rain versus clearer intervals explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while lower readings would require stronger onshore winds or heavier nocturnal precipitation than currently projected. Official updates through July 5 will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$268종료일
2026.07.06마켓 개설일
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multi-model consensus point to overnight lows near 27–28°C on July 6, driven by southeast monsoon flow, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-July climatology, where average minima hover around 26°C amid frequent cloud cover and moisture convergence that narrows day-to-day variability. Subtle differences in model timing of rain versus clearer intervals explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27°C and 28°C outcomes, while lower readings would require stronger onshore winds or heavier nocturnal precipitation than currently projected. Official updates through July 5 will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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