Recent April CPI data surprised to the upside at 3.8% year-over-year, up sharply from March’s 3.3% reading and exceeding consensus, which has anchored trader expectations for the May annual rate near 4.3%. This reacceleration, driven primarily by energy and shelter components, has narrowed the gap between the 4.3% and ≥4.4% outcomes while keeping the 4.2% bucket in close contention. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether May’s print will sustain the momentum from April’s hot figures or show early signs of moderation amid still-elevated core pressures. With the next CPI release scheduled for mid-June, traders are closely monitoring incoming data on gasoline prices and housing costs for any last-minute shifts in the distribution.