Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains HHS Secretary after a narrow 52-48 Senate confirmation in February 2025, with traders implying a 71% chance he stays through December 31, 2026, reflecting White House backing despite persistent criticism. Recent staff turnover, including his chief spokesperson's resignation this week over FDA flavored e-cigarette policy disputes, has not triggered dismissal signals, echoing earlier 2025 calls for resignation from medical groups and HHS employees that went unheeded. Ongoing leadership shakeups at HHS in February 2026 and defense of the fiscal year 2026 budget underscore his entrenched role in executing the administration's health priorities, absent major scandals or midterm election pressures to force an exit.