South Dakota's strongly Republican electorate and history of lopsided margins in federal contests underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the at-large House race. The June 2 primary features a contest between Marty Jackley and James Bialota, with early polling showing Jackley ahead by wide margins, while the Democratic primary was canceled and nominee Nicole Gronli faces an independent challenger in November. Ratings from the Cook Political Report and similar outlets classify the seat as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the state's partisan lean and past results exceeding 60 percent for GOP candidates. Late shifts in primary turnout, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or national economic conditions could still narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given the structural advantages.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$16,931 거래량
$16,931 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
5%
$16,931 거래량
$16,931 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$9,474 거래량
94%
Democratic Party
$7,457 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's strongly Republican electorate and history of lopsided margins in federal contests underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the at-large House race. The June 2 primary features a contest between Marty Jackley and James Bialota, with early polling showing Jackley ahead by wide margins, while the Democratic primary was canceled and nominee Nicole Gronli faces an independent challenger in November. Ratings from the Cook Political Report and similar outlets classify the seat as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the state's partisan lean and past results exceeding 60 percent for GOP candidates. Late shifts in primary turnout, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or national economic conditions could still narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given the structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$16,931종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's strongly Republican electorate and history of lopsided margins in federal contests underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the at-large House race. The June 2 primary features a contest between Marty Jackley and James Bialota, with early polling showing Jackley ahead by wide margins, while the Democratic primary was canceled and nominee Nicole Gronli faces an independent challenger in November. Ratings from the Cook Political Report and similar outlets classify the seat as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the state's partisan lean and past results exceeding 60 percent for GOP candidates. Late shifts in primary turnout, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or national economic conditions could still narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given the structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$16,931종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's strongly Republican electorate and history of lopsided margins in federal contests underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the at-large House race. The June 2 primary features a contest between Marty Jackley and James Bialota, with early polling showing Jackley ahead by wide margins, while the Democratic primary was canceled and nominee Nicole Gronli faces an independent challenger in November. Ratings from the Cook Political Report and similar outlets classify the seat as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the state's partisan lean and past results exceeding 60 percent for GOP candidates. Late shifts in primary turnout, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or national economic conditions could still narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given the structural advantages.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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