Recent term extensions approved by Somaliland's House of Elders have pushed the parliamentary elections from their original May 2026 schedule to March 2027, establishing a clear procedural barrier that underpins the dominant trader consensus around no vote before 2027. This delay stems from unresolved disputes over electoral frameworks and party positioning, with the ruling Waddani party holding an institutional edge through its control of the executive and legislative processes. Opposition groups Kulmiye and UCID face internal challenges and limited leverage in the extended mandate period, keeping their implied probabilities low. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these prices highlights how the confirmed postponement and ongoing coalition dynamics shape near-term resolution risks, while any shift in House of Elders decisions or renewed negotiation breakthroughs could alter the timeline within the coming months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2027년 이전 선거 없음 88%
정의와 복지 (UCID) 5.2%
Kulmiye 1.3%
와다니 <1%
$18,392 거래량
$18,392 거래량
2026.03.31
2027년 이전 선거 없음
78%
정의와 복지 (UCID)
5%
Kulmiye
1%
와다니
23%
2027년 이전 선거 없음 88%
정의와 복지 (UCID) 5.2%
Kulmiye 1.3%
와다니 <1%
$18,392 거래량
$18,392 거래량
2026.03.31
2027년 이전 선거 없음
$10,033 거래량
78%
정의와 복지 (UCID)
$3,877 거래량
5%
Kulmiye
$2,458 거래량
1%
와다니
$2,023 거래량
23%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Recent term extensions approved by Somaliland's House of Elders have pushed the parliamentary elections from their original May 2026 schedule to March 2027, establishing a clear procedural barrier that underpins the dominant trader consensus around no vote before 2027. This delay stems from unresolved disputes over electoral frameworks and party positioning, with the ruling Waddani party holding an institutional edge through its control of the executive and legislative processes. Opposition groups Kulmiye and UCID face internal challenges and limited leverage in the extended mandate period, keeping their implied probabilities low. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these prices highlights how the confirmed postponement and ongoing coalition dynamics shape near-term resolution risks, while any shift in House of Elders decisions or renewed negotiation breakthroughs could alter the timeline within the coming months.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
거래량
$18,392종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Recent term extensions approved by Somaliland's House of Elders have pushed the parliamentary elections from their original May 2026 schedule to March 2027, establishing a clear procedural barrier that underpins the dominant trader consensus around no vote before 2027. This delay stems from unresolved disputes over electoral frameworks and party positioning, with the ruling Waddani party holding an institutional edge through its control of the executive and legislative processes. Opposition groups Kulmiye and UCID face internal challenges and limited leverage in the extended mandate period, keeping their implied probabilities low. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these prices highlights how the confirmed postponement and ongoing coalition dynamics shape near-term resolution risks, while any shift in House of Elders decisions or renewed negotiation breakthroughs could alter the timeline within the coming months.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
거래량
$18,392종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent term extensions approved by Somaliland's House of Elders have pushed the parliamentary elections from their original May 2026 schedule to March 2027, establishing a clear procedural barrier that underpins the dominant trader consensus around no vote before 2027. This delay stems from unresolved disputes over electoral frameworks and party positioning, with the ruling Waddani party holding an institutional edge through its control of the executive and legislative processes. Opposition groups Kulmiye and UCID face internal challenges and limited leverage in the extended mandate period, keeping their implied probabilities low. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these prices highlights how the confirmed postponement and ongoing coalition dynamics shape near-term resolution risks, while any shift in House of Elders decisions or renewed negotiation breakthroughs could alter the timeline within the coming months.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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