The recent collapse of Romania’s pro-European coalition government through a May 5 no-confidence vote backed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has created a fluid parliamentary landscape that keeps multiple coalition paths competitive. President Nicușor Dan’s ongoing consultations with parties emphasize the need for a stable majority supporting a pro-Western prime minister, favoring arrangements among mainstream groups while excluding far-right participation. This dynamic sustains tight odds between PSD-AUR and PNL-UDMR options, as traders weigh parliamentary arithmetic, potential technocratic compromises, and the risk of prolonged negotiations that could delay a confidence vote. Upcoming party responses and any emerging majority commitments remain the primary catalysts that could shift probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트PSD + AUR 43%
PNL + UDMR 41.2%
AUR 4.7%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.4%
신규
신규
2026.05.31
PSD
30%
PNL
-
USR
1%
UDMR
3%
AUR
5%
PSD + PNL
-
PSD + USR
3%
PSD + UDMR
37%
PSD + AUR
43%
PNL + USR
3%
PNL + UDMR
41%
PNL + AUR
8%
USR + UDMR
4%
USR + AUR
1%
UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
3%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
4%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
10%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
3%
USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
39%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
Other
38%
PSD + AUR 43%
PNL + UDMR 41.2%
AUR 4.7%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.4%
신규
신규
2026.05.31
PSD
$30 거래량
30%
PNL
$101 거래량
-
USR
$786 거래량
1%
UDMR
$580 거래량
3%
AUR
$30 거래량
5%
PSD + PNL
$118 거래량
-
PSD + USR
$456 거래량
3%
PSD + UDMR
$36 거래량
37%
PSD + AUR
$122 거래량
43%
PNL + USR
$51 거래량
3%
PNL + UDMR
$67 거래량
41%
PNL + AUR
$160 거래량
8%
USR + UDMR
$250 거래량
4%
USR + AUR
$640 거래량
1%
UDMR + AUR
$330 거래량
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
$30 거래량
3%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$77 거래량
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$84 거래량
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$305 거래량
4%
PSD + USR + AUR
$297 거래량
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$369 거래량
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$230 거래량
10%
PNL + USR + AUR
$298 거래량
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$154 거래량
3%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$260 거래량
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$30 거래량
39%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$319 거래량
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$336 거래량
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$361 거래량
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$319 거래량
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$356 거래량
1%
Other
$50 거래량
38%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The recent collapse of Romania’s pro-European coalition government through a May 5 no-confidence vote backed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has created a fluid parliamentary landscape that keeps multiple coalition paths competitive. President Nicușor Dan’s ongoing consultations with parties emphasize the need for a stable majority supporting a pro-Western prime minister, favoring arrangements among mainstream groups while excluding far-right participation. This dynamic sustains tight odds between PSD-AUR and PNL-UDMR options, as traders weigh parliamentary arithmetic, potential technocratic compromises, and the risk of prolonged negotiations that could delay a confidence vote. Upcoming party responses and any emerging majority commitments remain the primary catalysts that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
마켓 개설일: May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
거래량
$7,630종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The recent collapse of Romania’s pro-European coalition government through a May 5 no-confidence vote backed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has created a fluid parliamentary landscape that keeps multiple coalition paths competitive. President Nicușor Dan’s ongoing consultations with parties emphasize the need for a stable majority supporting a pro-Western prime minister, favoring arrangements among mainstream groups while excluding far-right participation. This dynamic sustains tight odds between PSD-AUR and PNL-UDMR options, as traders weigh parliamentary arithmetic, potential technocratic compromises, and the risk of prolonged negotiations that could delay a confidence vote. Upcoming party responses and any emerging majority commitments remain the primary catalysts that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
거래량
$7,630종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The recent collapse of Romania’s pro-European coalition government through a May 5 no-confidence vote backed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has created a fluid parliamentary landscape that keeps multiple coalition paths competitive. President Nicușor Dan’s ongoing consultations with parties emphasize the need for a stable majority supporting a pro-Western prime minister, favoring arrangements among mainstream groups while excluding far-right participation. This dynamic sustains tight odds between PSD-AUR and PNL-UDMR options, as traders weigh parliamentary arithmetic, potential technocratic compromises, and the risk of prolonged negotiations that could delay a confidence vote. Upcoming party responses and any emerging majority commitments remain the primary catalysts that could shift probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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