Trader consensus favoring no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, rests on U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing maintains no fixed timeline or current plans for military action against the island. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have stayed at subdued levels through April and early May, with no major exercises or escalatory maneuvers recorded in recent weeks. Diplomatic channels remain active, including preparations for bilateral talks between Washington and Beijing alongside Taiwan's approval of expanded defense funding and domestic drone production to strengthen deterrence. China's economic priorities and absence of verifiable provocation signals further underpin the strong implied probability for continued stability. Abrupt shifts in military posture, territorial incidents, or unexpected outcomes from upcoming summits represent the primary factors that could still alter this outlook within the short resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$8,315,611 거래량
$8,315,611 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$8,315,611 거래량
$8,315,611 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favoring no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, rests on U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing maintains no fixed timeline or current plans for military action against the island. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have stayed at subdued levels through April and early May, with no major exercises or escalatory maneuvers recorded in recent weeks. Diplomatic channels remain active, including preparations for bilateral talks between Washington and Beijing alongside Taiwan's approval of expanded defense funding and domestic drone production to strengthen deterrence. China's economic priorities and absence of verifiable provocation signals further underpin the strong implied probability for continued stability. Abrupt shifts in military posture, territorial incidents, or unexpected outcomes from upcoming summits represent the primary factors that could still alter this outlook within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
거래량
$8,315,611종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favoring no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, rests on U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing maintains no fixed timeline or current plans for military action against the island. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have stayed at subdued levels through April and early May, with no major exercises or escalatory maneuvers recorded in recent weeks. Diplomatic channels remain active, including preparations for bilateral talks between Washington and Beijing alongside Taiwan's approval of expanded defense funding and domestic drone production to strengthen deterrence. China's economic priorities and absence of verifiable provocation signals further underpin the strong implied probability for continued stability. Abrupt shifts in military posture, territorial incidents, or unexpected outcomes from upcoming summits represent the primary factors that could still alter this outlook within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$8,315,611종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, rests on U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing maintains no fixed timeline or current plans for military action against the island. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait have stayed at subdued levels through April and early May, with no major exercises or escalatory maneuvers recorded in recent weeks. Diplomatic channels remain active, including preparations for bilateral talks between Washington and Beijing alongside Taiwan's approval of expanded defense funding and domestic drone production to strengthen deterrence. China's economic priorities and absence of verifiable provocation signals further underpin the strong implied probability for continued stability. Abrupt shifts in military posture, territorial incidents, or unexpected outcomes from upcoming summits represent the primary factors that could still alter this outlook within the short resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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