The near-certain trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflects the absence of any large-scale PLA mobilization, amphibious exercises, or logistical buildup in the Taiwan Strait over the past month. Routine gray-zone pressure continues through air defense identification zone incursions and coast guard activity near Kinmen, yet these fall well short of invasion thresholds. High-level diplomacy, including the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing where Taiwan arms sales featured prominently, has further reduced near-term escalation risks. With only six weeks remaining before resolution, analysts note that any credible invasion would require visible preparations now absent from open-source indicators. A sudden shift in US policy or unforeseen crisis could still alter assessments, though such developments remain unlikely in the current window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$8,314,896 거래량
$8,314,896 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$8,314,896 거래량
$8,314,896 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The near-certain trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflects the absence of any large-scale PLA mobilization, amphibious exercises, or logistical buildup in the Taiwan Strait over the past month. Routine gray-zone pressure continues through air defense identification zone incursions and coast guard activity near Kinmen, yet these fall well short of invasion thresholds. High-level diplomacy, including the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing where Taiwan arms sales featured prominently, has further reduced near-term escalation risks. With only six weeks remaining before resolution, analysts note that any credible invasion would require visible preparations now absent from open-source indicators. A sudden shift in US policy or unforeseen crisis could still alter assessments, though such developments remain unlikely in the current window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
거래량
$8,314,896종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The near-certain trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflects the absence of any large-scale PLA mobilization, amphibious exercises, or logistical buildup in the Taiwan Strait over the past month. Routine gray-zone pressure continues through air defense identification zone incursions and coast guard activity near Kinmen, yet these fall well short of invasion thresholds. High-level diplomacy, including the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing where Taiwan arms sales featured prominently, has further reduced near-term escalation risks. With only six weeks remaining before resolution, analysts note that any credible invasion would require visible preparations now absent from open-source indicators. A sudden shift in US policy or unforeseen crisis could still alter assessments, though such developments remain unlikely in the current window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$8,314,896종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflects the absence of any large-scale PLA mobilization, amphibious exercises, or logistical buildup in the Taiwan Strait over the past month. Routine gray-zone pressure continues through air defense identification zone incursions and coast guard activity near Kinmen, yet these fall well short of invasion thresholds. High-level diplomacy, including the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing where Taiwan arms sales featured prominently, has further reduced near-term escalation risks. With only six weeks remaining before resolution, analysts note that any credible invasion would require visible preparations now absent from open-source indicators. A sudden shift in US policy or unforeseen crisis could still alter assessments, though such developments remain unlikely in the current window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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