Elon Musk’s constitutional ineligibility under the natural-born citizen requirement continues to anchor trader consensus against any presidential announcement before 2027. Recent public statements have reinforced this barrier, with Musk citing his South African birth and focusing instead on supporting Republican candidates through donations and political spending ahead of the 2026 midterms. After briefly exploring a third-party vehicle in 2025, he has since scaled back those efforts, prioritizing business operations and indirect influence via alignments with figures such as Vice President JD Vance. No campaign infrastructure, exploratory committees, or ballot-related activity has emerged in the past several months, leaving the implied probability of a pre-2027 announcement at the current 92 percent level for “No.”