**Recent developments center on a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached around June 15, 2026.** President Trump and Vice President JD Vance electronically or virtually signed the framework agreement alongside Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The MoU focuses on extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and launching 60 days of follow-on talks on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and related issues. A formal signing ceremony had been referenced for Friday (June 19) in Switzerland or Geneva, but public statements remain inconsistent on timing, exact terms, and format. Trump has described the deal as "all signed" while indicating openness to congressional review; no text has been released, and key details such as verification mechanisms or asset releases stay unresolved pending further negotiations. **Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" on Trump physically signing the document** because the initial execution occurred electronically/virtual, with no confirmed in-person ceremony involving Trump's direct physical signature. Historical patterns for such framework agreements, combined with the preliminary nature of the MoU and scheduling ambiguity around any ceremonial event, reinforce expectations that a traditional physical signing by the president is unlikely within the resolution window. Uncertainties around Israeli reactions, final nuclear provisions, and procedural steps further support the current implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
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2026.07.31
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2026.07.31
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump physically signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Physically signs” means that Donald Trump personally signs the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
If the United States and Iran complete the physical signing of the agreement (e.g., through a signing ceremony) and Trump does not physically sign the agreement, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent developments center on a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached around June 15, 2026.** President Trump and Vice President JD Vance electronically or virtually signed the framework agreement alongside Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The MoU focuses on extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and launching 60 days of follow-on talks on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and related issues.
A formal signing ceremony had been referenced for Friday (June 19) in Switzerland or Geneva, but public statements remain inconsistent on timing, exact terms, and format. Trump has described the deal as "all signed" while indicating openness to congressional review; no text has been released, and key details such as verification mechanisms or asset releases stay unresolved pending further negotiations.
**Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" on Trump physically signing the document** because the initial execution occurred electronically/virtual, with no confirmed in-person ceremony involving Trump's direct physical signature. Historical patterns for such framework agreements, combined with the preliminary nature of the MoU and scheduling ambiguity around any ceremonial event, reinforce expectations that a traditional physical signing by the president is unlikely within the resolution window. Uncertainties around Israeli reactions, final nuclear provisions, and procedural steps further support the current implied probability.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump physically signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Physically signs” means that Donald Trump personally signs the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
If the United States and Iran complete the physical signing of the agreement (e.g., through a signing ceremony) and Trump does not physically sign the agreement, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump physically signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Physically signs” means that Donald Trump personally signs the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
If the United States and Iran complete the physical signing of the agreement (e.g., through a signing ceremony) and Trump does not physically sign the agreement, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jun 16, 2026, 11:52 AM ET
거래량
$4,148종료일
2026.07.31마켓 개설일
Jun 16, 2026, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump physically signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Physically signs” means that Donald Trump personally signs the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
If the United States and Iran complete the physical signing of the agreement (e.g., through a signing ceremony) and Trump does not physically sign the agreement, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent developments center on a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached around June 15, 2026.** President Trump and Vice President JD Vance electronically or virtually signed the framework agreement alongside Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The MoU focuses on extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and launching 60 days of follow-on talks on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and related issues.
A formal signing ceremony had been referenced for Friday (June 19) in Switzerland or Geneva, but public statements remain inconsistent on timing, exact terms, and format. Trump has described the deal as "all signed" while indicating openness to congressional review; no text has been released, and key details such as verification mechanisms or asset releases stay unresolved pending further negotiations.
**Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" on Trump physically signing the document** because the initial execution occurred electronically/virtual, with no confirmed in-person ceremony involving Trump's direct physical signature. Historical patterns for such framework agreements, combined with the preliminary nature of the MoU and scheduling ambiguity around any ceremonial event, reinforce expectations that a traditional physical signing by the president is unlikely within the resolution window. Uncertainties around Israeli reactions, final nuclear provisions, and procedural steps further support the current implied probability.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump physically signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Physically signs” means that Donald Trump personally signs the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
If the United States and Iran complete the physical signing of the agreement (e.g., through a signing ceremony) and Trump does not physically sign the agreement, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump physically signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Physically signs” means that Donald Trump personally signs the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
If the United States and Iran complete the physical signing of the agreement (e.g., through a signing ceremony) and Trump does not physically sign the agreement, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$4,148종료일
2026.07.31마켓 개설일
Jun 16, 2026, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent developments center on a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached around June 15, 2026.** President Trump and Vice President JD Vance electronically or virtually signed the framework agreement alongside Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The MoU focuses on extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, and launching 60 days of follow-on talks on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and related issues. A formal signing ceremony had been referenced for Friday (June 19) in Switzerland or Geneva, but public statements remain inconsistent on timing, exact terms, and format. Trump has described the deal as "all signed" while indicating openness to congressional review; no text has been released, and key details such as verification mechanisms or asset releases stay unresolved pending further negotiations. **Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" on Trump physically signing the document** because the initial execution occurred electronically/virtual, with no confirmed in-person ceremony involving Trump's direct physical signature. Historical patterns for such framework agreements, combined with the preliminary nature of the MoU and scheduling ambiguity around any ceremonial event, reinforce expectations that a traditional physical signing by the president is unlikely within the resolution window. Uncertainties around Israeli reactions, final nuclear provisions, and procedural steps further support the current implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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