Esteban "Steve" Guerra secured the Democratic nomination for Cameron County Judge by defeating three-term incumbent Eddie Treviño Jr. in the May 26, 2026, primary runoff, earning roughly 55% of the vote. As chair of the Port of Brownsville board with extensive local government experience, Guerra enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner in a county that consistently favors Democratic candidates. Republican nominee Mauro Garza, who advanced unopposed in his primary, trails significantly in trader pricing. The wide margin in implied probabilities reflects the structural advantage of Democratic registration and voting patterns, though variables such as general election turnout, local economic concerns, or late campaign developments could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.