Democratic enthusiasm in 2026 primaries and special elections has exceeded 2022 levels, driven by opposition to President Trump’s second-term agenda, low approval ratings near 40-45 percent, and economic pressures including inflation. Expanded mail and early voting infrastructure, plus growth in younger eligible voters, have raised the structural turnout floor above historical midterm baselines like 2018’s 49.3 percent of voting-eligible population. Republican mobilization efforts and mid-decade redistricting add countervailing uncertainty. With roughly three months until November, trader consensus clusters around 115-125 million total House ballots because recent indicators point to moderately elevated participation without confirming a record wave, while late-cycle events such as economic data releases, campaign spending surges, or national news could shift likely-voter screens and widen the distribution.