**Recent opinion polls place the AfD at 17–18% in the September 20 Berlin state election, creating a narrow contest around the 17% threshold.** The latest Forsa survey (August 4–18) and INSA poll (August 7–13) both show the party at or just above this level, following earlier readings of 16–19% that occasionally placed it in the lead. This reflects the AfD’s broader national gains amid voter concerns over immigration, economic conditions, and dissatisfaction with established parties, even in left-leaning Berlin where it previously received only 9.1% in 2023. Local factors include candidate Kristin Brinker’s campaign and the party’s ability to consolidate protest votes, though mainstream parties continue to rule out coalitions with the AfD. The election outcome remains sensitive to final turnout and late shifts, with current trader pricing reflecting the tight polling spread and limited remaining time before voting.