Recent polling trends place the AfD at 35–36% support ahead of the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election, positioning the party for a plurality but well short of a majority under the state’s proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. This vote share range aligns closely with the market’s tightest outcomes of 28–35 seats, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout, the distribution of remaining votes among the SPD, Left, CDU and smaller parties, and potential tactical voting. Incumbent SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s personal standing and efforts to form blocking arrangements among non-AfD forces add further variability, while late campaign momentum or shifts in eastern German voter mobilization could push seat totals higher or lower within the leading brackets.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano28-31 33%
24-27 28%
32-35 25%
20-23 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
<20
4%
20-23
7%
24-27
28%
28-31
33%
32-35
32%
36+
4%
28-31 33%
24-27 28%
32-35 25%
20-23 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$55 Wol.
4%
20-23
$373 Wol.
7%
24-27
$5 Wol.
28%
28-31
$125 Wol.
33%
32-35
$110 Wol.
32%
36+
$166 Wol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling trends place the AfD at 35–36% support ahead of the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election, positioning the party for a plurality but well short of a majority under the state’s proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. This vote share range aligns closely with the market’s tightest outcomes of 28–35 seats, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout, the distribution of remaining votes among the SPD, Left, CDU and smaller parties, and potential tactical voting. Incumbent SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s personal standing and efforts to form blocking arrangements among non-AfD forces add further variability, while late campaign momentum or shifts in eastern German voter mobilization could push seat totals higher or lower within the leading brackets.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$834Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling trends place the AfD at 35–36% support ahead of the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election, positioning the party for a plurality but well short of a majority under the state’s proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. This vote share range aligns closely with the market’s tightest outcomes of 28–35 seats, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout, the distribution of remaining votes among the SPD, Left, CDU and smaller parties, and potential tactical voting. Incumbent SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s personal standing and efforts to form blocking arrangements among non-AfD forces add further variability, while late campaign momentum or shifts in eastern German voter mobilization could push seat totals higher or lower within the leading brackets.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Wolumen
$834Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling trends place the AfD at 35–36% support ahead of the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election, positioning the party for a plurality but well short of a majority under the state’s proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. This vote share range aligns closely with the market’s tightest outcomes of 28–35 seats, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout, the distribution of remaining votes among the SPD, Left, CDU and smaller parties, and potential tactical voting. Incumbent SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s personal standing and efforts to form blocking arrangements among non-AfD forces add further variability, while late campaign momentum or shifts in eastern German voter mobilization could push seat totals higher or lower within the leading brackets.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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