Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?
Iván Cepeda Castro 84%
Abelardo de la Espriella 16.3%
Paloma Valencia <1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$5,977,278 Wol.
$5,977,278 Wol.
May 31, 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
$536,696 Wol.
84%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$1,041,425 Wol.
16%
Paloma Valencia
$594,995 Wol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila
$441,350 Wol.
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$298,122 Wol.
<1%
Claudia López
$300,293 Wol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$283,057 Wol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$156,932 Wol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
$229,484 Wol.
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
$209,235 Wol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$235,184 Wol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$287,138 Wol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$285,258 Wol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$256,693 Wol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$144,829 Wol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$335,378 Wol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$305,388 Wol.
<1%
Iván Cepeda Castro 84%
Abelardo de la Espriella 16.3%
Paloma Valencia <1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$5,977,278 Wol.
$5,977,278 Wol.
May 31, 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
$536,696 Wol.
84%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$1,041,425 Wol.
16%
Paloma Valencia
$594,995 Wol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila
$441,350 Wol.
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$298,122 Wol.
<1%
Claudia López
$300,293 Wol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$283,057 Wol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$156,932 Wol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
$229,484 Wol.
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
$209,235 Wol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$235,184 Wol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$287,138 Wol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$285,258 Wol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$256,693 Wol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$144,829 Wol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$335,378 Wol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$305,388 Wol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
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Często zadawane pytania
" Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 18 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Iván Cepeda Castro" z 84%, za nim "Abelardo de la Espriella" z 16%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 84¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 84% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.
Na dzień dzisiejszy " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?" wygenerował $6 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Dec 23, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.
Aby handlować na " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?", przeglądaj 18 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.
Obecnym faworytem dla " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?" jest "Iván Cepeda Castro" z 84%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 84% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Abelardo de la Espriella" z 16%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.
Zasady rozstrzygania " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.
Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.
Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $6 million wolumenu na " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.
Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.
Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 84¢ za "Iván Cepeda Castro" na rynku " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 84% szansy na to, że "Iván Cepeda Castro" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 84¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 16¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.
Rynek " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?" jest zaplanowany na rozstrzygnięcie około May 31, 2026. Handel pozostaje otwarty, a kursy będą się zmieniać w miarę pojawiania się nowych informacji. Dokładny czas rozstrzygnięcia zależy od tego, kiedy oficjalny wynik stanie się dostępny, zgodnie z sekcją "Zasady" na tej stronie.
Rynek " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?" ma aktywną społeczność z 39 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na co postawiły największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.
Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak " Zwycięzca pierwszej rundy wyborów prezydenckich w Kolumbii?". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.
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