This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a 66.5% implied probability on prediction markets to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by prior polling leads like April surveys showing him ahead 47-38% and 52-48%, superior cash-on-hand of over $600,000, and Sen. Rand Paul’s endorsement, despite President Trump’s backing of challenger Ed Gallrein since late 2025. A fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 has Gallrein leading 53-45% as undecided GOP voters break heavily his way, fueling the 34.4% trader odds amid early voting underway through May 16 in this Northern Kentucky battleground pitting Massie’s independent conservative record against Gallrein’s Navy SEAL credentials and MAGA loyalty. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. trail at negligible levels after withdrawing.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a 66.5% implied probability on prediction markets to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by prior polling leads like April surveys showing him ahead 47-38% and 52-48%, superior cash-on-hand of over $600,000, and Sen. Rand Paul’s endorsement, despite President Trump’s backing of challenger Ed Gallrein since late 2025. A fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 has Gallrein leading 53-45% as undecided GOP voters break heavily his way, fueling the 34.4% trader odds amid early voting underway through May 16 in this Northern Kentucky battleground pitting Massie’s independent conservative record against Gallrein’s Navy SEAL credentials and MAGA loyalty. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. trail at negligible levels after withdrawing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
May 14 2026
House passes funding package with Thomas Massie as sole Republican no vote
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
Thomas Massie was the only Republican to vote against a government funding package, highlighting his maverick stance and possibly affecting his market support negatively in the short term.
May 6 2026
Massie’s market hits 78% after final pre‑primary rally
Thomas Massie rises to 78%4%
A televised rally in Lexington featuring Massie and Trump supporters generated strong media coverage, pushing the market to its peak ahead of the May 19 primary.
May 5 2026
Trump backs primary challenger against Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
President Trump endorsed a primary challenger to Thomas Massie, reflecting intra-party conflict and causing volatility in Massie's market support, which saw a temporary increase followed by a decline.
Apr 22 2026
Rep. Andy Barr announces Senate run, exits House race
Thomas Massie rises to 74%4%
Barr’s decision to run for the Senate left Kentucky’s 4th district open, shifting GOP focus to the KY‑04 primary and giving Massie a clearer path, nudging his price upward.
Mar 10 2026
Trump endorses challenger against Thomas Massie in KY-04 primary
Thomas Massie plunges to 60%15%
President Donald Trump endorsed a primary challenger against incumbent Thomas Massie, signaling a rift due to Massie's defiance on issues like the Epstein files, which caused a significant drop in Massie's market support and reshaped the primary race dynamics.
Feb 19 2026
Justice Department announces discovery of over a million new Epstein documents
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ's announcement of uncovering over a million additional Epstein-related documents delayed the release process, intensifying scrutiny. Massie's criticism of DOJ's illegal redactions bolstered his image as a transparency advocate, impacting his market support positively.
Feb 15 2026
DOJ announces further delay in releasing Epstein documents
Thomas Massie drops to 71%5%
The Justice Department’s statement that it needed additional weeks to finish the release revived concerns raised by Massie, causing a modest dip in his price as uncertainty grew.
Feb 1 2026
Justice Department reveals over 5 million Epstein documents under review
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ announced a massive review of Epstein-related documents, validating Massie's claims of delayed and incomplete release, keeping the issue in the spotlight and reinforcing his image as a transparency advocate, which affected his market position.
Jan 29 2026
House passes GOP health care bill excluding ACA subsidy extension
Thomas Massie plunges to 63%15%
The House passed a Republican health care package that did not extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, with Thomas Massie as the only Republican voting against it, reflecting his moderate stance and opposition to party leadership, which influenced his market support.
Jan 21 2026
Judge blocks Massie and Khanna from intervening in Epstein files case
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
A judge ruled that Massie and Khanna could not intervene in the criminal case of Ghislaine Maxwell to oversee the release of Epstein files, underscoring the legal challenges faced by Massie in his efforts to push transparency, which kept his name in the news and affected his political standing.
Jan 14 2026
Clintons refuse to testify in House Epstein probe amid contempt threats
Thomas Massie dips to 76%2%
The refusal of Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify in the House Epstein investigation, with Massie involved in the probe, kept the Epstein files issue in the spotlight, sustaining Massie's prominence and market support.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna demand DOJ release full Epstein files
Thomas Massie rises to 72%4%
Rep. Thomas Massie co‑authored a letter urging a judge to appoint a neutral monitor after the DOJ missed the deadline, raising his profile and boosting his market price.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna urge court to appoint neutral expert for Epstein files release
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
Massie, alongside Rep. Ro Khanna, requested a judge to appoint a neutral expert to oversee the release of Epstein files, highlighting concerns about DOJ compliance. This action reinforced Massie's image as a fighter for transparency, supporting his market position.
Dec 27 2025
Ed Gallrein’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall
Ed Gallrein drops to 27%14%
A report on Gallrein’s stalled fundraising efforts led to a noticeable drop in his market price as donors shifted support elsewhere.
Dec 18 2025
Massie co‑authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 68%22%
Massie’s legislative role in the Epstein Files Transparency Act raised his national profile, contributing to the early rise in his market price.
Dec 10 2025
Trump backs challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky primary
Thomas Massie surges to 76%30%
President Trump publicly endorsed a primary opponent to Massie, signaling intra‑party conflict and prompting a surge in Massie's market price as supporters rallied behind him.
Dec 5 2025
Robert Wells Jr. suspends campaign after personal scandal
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 0%46%
Wells Jr. faced a personal scandal that led him to suspend his campaign, causing his market price to collapse to zero.
Dec 3 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington withdraws from KY‑04 race
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 0%46%
Ethington’s early exit from the primary eliminated her from contention, driving her market price to zero.
Dec 1 2025
Thomas Massie co-authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 61%15%
Rep. Thomas Massie co-authored legislation mandating the release of Jeffrey Epstein investigative files, raising his profile and support in the KY-04 Republican primary market. This legislative action increased investor confidence in Massie's candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 46% to 61%.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a 66.5% implied probability on prediction markets to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by prior polling leads like April surveys showing him ahead 47-38% and 52-48%, superior cash-on-hand of over $600,000, and Sen. Rand Paul’s endorsement, despite President Trump’s backing of challenger Ed Gallrein since late 2025. A fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 has Gallrein leading 53-45% as undecided GOP voters break heavily his way, fueling the 34.4% trader odds amid early voting underway through May 16 in this Northern Kentucky battleground pitting Massie’s independent conservative record against Gallrein’s Navy SEAL credentials and MAGA loyalty. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. trail at negligible levels after withdrawing.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a 66.5% implied probability on prediction markets to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by prior polling leads like April surveys showing him ahead 47-38% and 52-48%, superior cash-on-hand of over $600,000, and Sen. Rand Paul’s endorsement, despite President Trump’s backing of challenger Ed Gallrein since late 2025. A fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 has Gallrein leading 53-45% as undecided GOP voters break heavily his way, fueling the 34.4% trader odds amid early voting underway through May 16 in this Northern Kentucky battleground pitting Massie’s independent conservative record against Gallrein’s Navy SEAL credentials and MAGA loyalty. Minor candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. trail at negligible levels after withdrawing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
May 14 2026
House passes funding package with Thomas Massie as sole Republican no vote
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
Thomas Massie was the only Republican to vote against a government funding package, highlighting his maverick stance and possibly affecting his market support negatively in the short term.
May 6 2026
Massie’s market hits 78% after final pre‑primary rally
Thomas Massie rises to 78%4%
A televised rally in Lexington featuring Massie and Trump supporters generated strong media coverage, pushing the market to its peak ahead of the May 19 primary.
May 5 2026
Trump backs primary challenger against Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
President Trump endorsed a primary challenger to Thomas Massie, reflecting intra-party conflict and causing volatility in Massie's market support, which saw a temporary increase followed by a decline.
Apr 22 2026
Rep. Andy Barr announces Senate run, exits House race
Thomas Massie rises to 74%4%
Barr’s decision to run for the Senate left Kentucky’s 4th district open, shifting GOP focus to the KY‑04 primary and giving Massie a clearer path, nudging his price upward.
Mar 10 2026
Trump endorses challenger against Thomas Massie in KY-04 primary
Thomas Massie plunges to 60%15%
President Donald Trump endorsed a primary challenger against incumbent Thomas Massie, signaling a rift due to Massie's defiance on issues like the Epstein files, which caused a significant drop in Massie's market support and reshaped the primary race dynamics.
Feb 19 2026
Justice Department announces discovery of over a million new Epstein documents
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ's announcement of uncovering over a million additional Epstein-related documents delayed the release process, intensifying scrutiny. Massie's criticism of DOJ's illegal redactions bolstered his image as a transparency advocate, impacting his market support positively.
Feb 15 2026
DOJ announces further delay in releasing Epstein documents
Thomas Massie drops to 71%5%
The Justice Department’s statement that it needed additional weeks to finish the release revived concerns raised by Massie, causing a modest dip in his price as uncertainty grew.
Feb 1 2026
Justice Department reveals over 5 million Epstein documents under review
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ announced a massive review of Epstein-related documents, validating Massie's claims of delayed and incomplete release, keeping the issue in the spotlight and reinforcing his image as a transparency advocate, which affected his market position.
Jan 29 2026
House passes GOP health care bill excluding ACA subsidy extension
Thomas Massie plunges to 63%15%
The House passed a Republican health care package that did not extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, with Thomas Massie as the only Republican voting against it, reflecting his moderate stance and opposition to party leadership, which influenced his market support.
Jan 21 2026
Judge blocks Massie and Khanna from intervening in Epstein files case
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
A judge ruled that Massie and Khanna could not intervene in the criminal case of Ghislaine Maxwell to oversee the release of Epstein files, underscoring the legal challenges faced by Massie in his efforts to push transparency, which kept his name in the news and affected his political standing.
Jan 14 2026
Clintons refuse to testify in House Epstein probe amid contempt threats
Thomas Massie dips to 76%2%
The refusal of Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify in the House Epstein investigation, with Massie involved in the probe, kept the Epstein files issue in the spotlight, sustaining Massie's prominence and market support.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna demand DOJ release full Epstein files
Thomas Massie rises to 72%4%
Rep. Thomas Massie co‑authored a letter urging a judge to appoint a neutral monitor after the DOJ missed the deadline, raising his profile and boosting his market price.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna urge court to appoint neutral expert for Epstein files release
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
Massie, alongside Rep. Ro Khanna, requested a judge to appoint a neutral expert to oversee the release of Epstein files, highlighting concerns about DOJ compliance. This action reinforced Massie's image as a fighter for transparency, supporting his market position.
Dec 27 2025
Ed Gallrein’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall
Ed Gallrein drops to 27%14%
A report on Gallrein’s stalled fundraising efforts led to a noticeable drop in his market price as donors shifted support elsewhere.
Dec 18 2025
Massie co‑authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 68%22%
Massie’s legislative role in the Epstein Files Transparency Act raised his national profile, contributing to the early rise in his market price.
Dec 10 2025
Trump backs challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky primary
Thomas Massie surges to 76%30%
President Trump publicly endorsed a primary opponent to Massie, signaling intra‑party conflict and prompting a surge in Massie's market price as supporters rallied behind him.
Dec 5 2025
Robert Wells Jr. suspends campaign after personal scandal
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 0%46%
Wells Jr. faced a personal scandal that led him to suspend his campaign, causing his market price to collapse to zero.
Dec 3 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington withdraws from KY‑04 race
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 0%46%
Ethington’s early exit from the primary eliminated her from contention, driving her market price to zero.
Dec 1 2025
Thomas Massie co-authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 61%15%
Rep. Thomas Massie co-authored legislation mandating the release of Jeffrey Epstein investigative files, raising his profile and support in the KY-04 Republican primary market. This legislative action increased investor confidence in Massie's candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 46% to 61%.
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"KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 4 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Thomas Massie" z 67%, za nim "Ed Gallrein" z 34%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 67¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 67% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.
Na dzień dzisiejszy "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" wygenerował $1.1 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Dec 1, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.
Aby handlować na "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner", przeglądaj 4 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.
Obecnym faworytem dla "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" jest "Thomas Massie" z 67%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 67% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Ed Gallrein" z 34%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.
Zasady rozstrzygania "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.
Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.
Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $1.1 million wolumenu na "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.
Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.
Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 67¢ za "Thomas Massie" na rynku "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 67% szansy na to, że "Thomas Massie" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 67¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 33¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.
Rynek "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" jest zaplanowany na rozstrzygnięcie około May 19, 2026. Handel pozostaje otwarty, a kursy będą się zmieniać w miarę pojawiania się nowych informacji. Dokładny czas rozstrzygnięcia zależy od tego, kiedy oficjalny wynik stanie się dostępny, zgodnie z sekcją "Zasady" na tej stronie.
Rynek "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" ma aktywną społeczność z 78 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na co postawiły największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.
Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.
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