Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90% implied probability on Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, aligning with the Google I/O 2026 keynote, where the company historically unveils major large language model updates amid competitive pressure from GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus. Recent leaks fueled this sentiment: Gemini 3.2 Flash surfaced in the Gemini app model selector for select users around May 5–12, appeared in iOS app builds, and tested on Eleuther AI Arena by May 3, showcasing coding and 3D upgrades over Gemini 3.1 Pro. Brief API deprecations and Vertex AI hints signal imminent general availability, though a test rollout remains possible; watch I/O for official confirmation before May 31 resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGemini 3.2 released on...?
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
May 19 90%
May 18 5.0%
No release by May 31 2.3%
May 17 1.5%
$282,781 Wol.
$282,781 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
2%
May 18
5%
May 19
90%
May 20
1%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
2%
May 19 90%
May 18 5.0%
No release by May 31 2.3%
May 17 1.5%
$282,781 Wol.
$282,781 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 15
$7,144 Wol.
<1%
May 16
$6,108 Wol.
<1%
May 17
$8,391 Wol.
2%
May 18
$34,180 Wol.
5%
May 19
$105,084 Wol.
90%
May 20
$15,386 Wol.
1%
May 21
$9,674 Wol.
1%
May 22
$11,156 Wol.
1%
May 23
$3,483 Wol.
<1%
May 24
$3,950 Wol.
<1%
May 25
$2,715 Wol.
<1%
May 26
$3,271 Wol.
<1%
May 27
$3,941 Wol.
<1%
May 28
$2,569 Wol.
<1%
May 29
$1,918 Wol.
<1%
May 30
$5,620 Wol.
<1%
May 31
$5,006 Wol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$19,166 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90% implied probability on Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, aligning with the Google I/O 2026 keynote, where the company historically unveils major large language model updates amid competitive pressure from GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus. Recent leaks fueled this sentiment: Gemini 3.2 Flash surfaced in the Gemini app model selector for select users around May 5–12, appeared in iOS app builds, and tested on Eleuther AI Arena by May 3, showcasing coding and 3D upgrades over Gemini 3.1 Pro. Brief API deprecations and Vertex AI hints signal imminent general availability, though a test rollout remains possible; watch I/O for official confirmation before May 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$282,781Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90% implied probability on Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, aligning with the Google I/O 2026 keynote, where the company historically unveils major large language model updates amid competitive pressure from GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus. Recent leaks fueled this sentiment: Gemini 3.2 Flash surfaced in the Gemini app model selector for select users around May 5–12, appeared in iOS app builds, and tested on Eleuther AI Arena by May 3, showcasing coding and 3D upgrades over Gemini 3.1 Pro. Brief API deprecations and Vertex AI hints signal imminent general availability, though a test rollout remains possible; watch I/O for official confirmation before May 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$282,781Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90% implied probability on Google releasing Gemini 3.2 on May 19, aligning with the Google I/O 2026 keynote, where the company historically unveils major large language model updates amid competitive pressure from GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus. Recent leaks fueled this sentiment: Gemini 3.2 Flash surfaced in the Gemini app model selector for select users around May 5–12, appeared in iOS app builds, and tested on Eleuther AI Arena by May 3, showcasing coding and 3D upgrades over Gemini 3.1 Pro. Brief API deprecations and Vertex AI hints signal imminent general availability, though a test rollout remains possible; watch I/O for official confirmation before May 31 resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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