Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models positions Ankara’s August 18 maximum near 29–30 °C, aligning with the market’s tight 43.5 % / 34.5 % split on those two outcomes. Persistent high pressure favors strong daytime radiative heating and light winds that limit mixing, while modest differences in forecast boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any weak upper-level trough produce the narrow 1 °C spread separating the leading probabilities. Historical mid-August climatology for the Anatolian plateau shows comparable values, yet short-range model runs remain sensitive to small changes in 850 hPa temperatures and cloud cover. Updated high-resolution guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will further constrain the precise peak before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Ankara on August 18?
Highest temperature in Ankara on August 18?
30°C 44%
29°C 35%
31°C 13%
28°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
8%
29°C
35%
30°C
44%
31°C
13%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 44%
29°C 35%
31°C 13%
28°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$145 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$41 Wol.
1%
27°C
$69 Wol.
2%
28°C
$53 Wol.
8%
29°C
$381 Wol.
35%
30°C
$149 Wol.
44%
31°C
$33 Wol.
13%
32°C
$26 Wol.
4%
33°C
$135 Wol.
1%
34°C
$39 Wol.
1%
35°C or higher
$149 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models positions Ankara’s August 18 maximum near 29–30 °C, aligning with the market’s tight 43.5 % / 34.5 % split on those two outcomes. Persistent high pressure favors strong daytime radiative heating and light winds that limit mixing, while modest differences in forecast boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any weak upper-level trough produce the narrow 1 °C spread separating the leading probabilities. Historical mid-August climatology for the Anatolian plateau shows comparable values, yet short-range model runs remain sensitive to small changes in 850 hPa temperatures and cloud cover. Updated high-resolution guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will further constrain the precise peak before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,221Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models positions Ankara’s August 18 maximum near 29–30 °C, aligning with the market’s tight 43.5 % / 34.5 % split on those two outcomes. Persistent high pressure favors strong daytime radiative heating and light winds that limit mixing, while modest differences in forecast boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any weak upper-level trough produce the narrow 1 °C spread separating the leading probabilities. Historical mid-August climatology for the Anatolian plateau shows comparable values, yet short-range model runs remain sensitive to small changes in 850 hPa temperatures and cloud cover. Updated high-resolution guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will further constrain the precise peak before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,221Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models positions Ankara’s August 18 maximum near 29–30 °C, aligning with the market’s tight 43.5 % / 34.5 % split on those two outcomes. Persistent high pressure favors strong daytime radiative heating and light winds that limit mixing, while modest differences in forecast boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any weak upper-level trough produce the narrow 1 °C spread separating the leading probabilities. Historical mid-August climatology for the Anatolian plateau shows comparable values, yet short-range model runs remain sensitive to small changes in 850 hPa temperatures and cloud cover. Updated high-resolution guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will further constrain the precise peak before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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