**Trader consensus centers on a 26–27°C high for Mexico City on June 14, 2026, with 27°C holding a 68.5% implied probability and 26°C at 24.5%.** Mexico City’s 2,240-meter elevation and June’s transitional weather—marked by increasing moisture from the start of the rainy season—normally keep daily maxima in the mid-20s Celsius. Official forecasts from sources such as AccuWeather and regional models show afternoon highs near 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms, which reduce insolation and limit warming. Historical June averages hover around 24–25°C, with occasional clearer periods allowing brief spikes to 27°C before convective clouds build. Recent model runs and early-month observations indicate slightly above-average dryness or delayed thunderstorm timing could push the peak to 27°C, supporting the market’s tilt toward that outcome. Resolution will depend on the official maximum recorded at the Tacubaya or similar reference station; any late-day clearing or reduced rainfall would favor the higher bin, while earlier or heavier precipitation would reinforce 26°C or below.