**Forecast models from sources including the BBC and timeanddate currently project a daytime maximum of 33–34 °C in Madrid on June 16, 2026, under mostly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds.** This aligns with the market’s leading contracts, where 33 °C holds the highest implied probability at 43.5 % and 34 °C follows at 26.5 %. Madrid’s continental climate and 657 m elevation amplify daytime heating under clear June conditions, with long daylight hours and strong insolation driving temperatures several degrees above the long-term average high of ~29 °C. Recent AEMET and ECMWF guidance show stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover, limiting cooling while preventing extreme Saharan intrusions that could push readings to 36 °C or higher. Ensemble spread remains narrow, keeping the combined probability for 32–34 °C near 92 % and capping upside risk. The next AEMET update and fresh model runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the primary catalysts that could shift these odds if they alter expected wind or cloud trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 16?
33°C 44%
34°C 27%
32°C 22%
31°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 16, 2026
30°C or below
3%
31°C
5%
32°C
22%
33°C
44%
34°C
27%
35°C
4%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 44%
34°C 27%
32°C 22%
31°C 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 16, 2026
30°C or below
$164 Wol.
3%
31°C
$152 Wol.
5%
32°C
$267 Wol.
22%
33°C
$337 Wol.
44%
34°C
$194 Wol.
27%
35°C
$67 Wol.
4%
36°C
$52 Wol.
1%
37°C
$627 Wol.
<1%
38°C
$381 Wol.
<1%
39°C
$356 Wol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$356 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including the BBC and timeanddate currently project a daytime maximum of 33–34 °C in Madrid on June 16, 2026, under mostly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds.** This aligns with the market’s leading contracts, where 33 °C holds the highest implied probability at 43.5 % and 34 °C follows at 26.5 %.
Madrid’s continental climate and 657 m elevation amplify daytime heating under clear June conditions, with long daylight hours and strong insolation driving temperatures several degrees above the long-term average high of ~29 °C. Recent AEMET and ECMWF guidance show stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover, limiting cooling while preventing extreme Saharan intrusions that could push readings to 36 °C or higher. Ensemble spread remains narrow, keeping the combined probability for 32–34 °C near 92 % and capping upside risk.
The next AEMET update and fresh model runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the primary catalysts that could shift these odds if they alter expected wind or cloud trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,953Data zakończenia
Jun 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including the BBC and timeanddate currently project a daytime maximum of 33–34 °C in Madrid on June 16, 2026, under mostly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds.** This aligns with the market’s leading contracts, where 33 °C holds the highest implied probability at 43.5 % and 34 °C follows at 26.5 %.
Madrid’s continental climate and 657 m elevation amplify daytime heating under clear June conditions, with long daylight hours and strong insolation driving temperatures several degrees above the long-term average high of ~29 °C. Recent AEMET and ECMWF guidance show stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover, limiting cooling while preventing extreme Saharan intrusions that could push readings to 36 °C or higher. Ensemble spread remains narrow, keeping the combined probability for 32–34 °C near 92 % and capping upside risk.
The next AEMET update and fresh model runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the primary catalysts that could shift these odds if they alter expected wind or cloud trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,953Data zakończenia
Jun 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including the BBC and timeanddate currently project a daytime maximum of 33–34 °C in Madrid on June 16, 2026, under mostly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds.** This aligns with the market’s leading contracts, where 33 °C holds the highest implied probability at 43.5 % and 34 °C follows at 26.5 %. Madrid’s continental climate and 657 m elevation amplify daytime heating under clear June conditions, with long daylight hours and strong insolation driving temperatures several degrees above the long-term average high of ~29 °C. Recent AEMET and ECMWF guidance show stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover, limiting cooling while preventing extreme Saharan intrusions that could push readings to 36 °C or higher. Ensemble spread remains narrow, keeping the combined probability for 32–34 °C near 92 % and capping upside risk. The next AEMET update and fresh model runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the primary catalysts that could shift these odds if they alter expected wind or cloud trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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