Recent forecast model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Poland's IMGW points to a high-pressure ridge delivering mostly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds over Warsaw on August 12, supporting maximum temperatures of 23–24 °C. This range aligns with climatological averages for mid-August and explains the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Differentiation between 23 °C and 24 °C will depend on the exact timing of peak insolation and any minor afternoon boundary-layer mixing, while probabilities for 25 °C or higher remain low absent unexpected warm advection. Updated short-range model runs and observational data from the next 48 hours will narrow the remaining uncertainty for traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 12?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 12?
23°C 38%
24°C 37%
25°C 14%
22°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
10%
23°C
38%
24°C
37%
25°C
14%
26°C
4%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 38%
24°C 37%
25°C 14%
22°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
$28 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$93 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$89 Wol.
1%
21°C
$4 Wol.
3%
22°C
$132 Wol.
10%
23°C
$348 Wol.
38%
24°C
$96 Wol.
37%
25°C
$177 Wol.
14%
26°C
$567 Wol.
4%
27°C
$22 Wol.
2%
28°C or higher
$71 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Poland's IMGW points to a high-pressure ridge delivering mostly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds over Warsaw on August 12, supporting maximum temperatures of 23–24 °C. This range aligns with climatological averages for mid-August and explains the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Differentiation between 23 °C and 24 °C will depend on the exact timing of peak insolation and any minor afternoon boundary-layer mixing, while probabilities for 25 °C or higher remain low absent unexpected warm advection. Updated short-range model runs and observational data from the next 48 hours will narrow the remaining uncertainty for traders.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,627Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Poland's IMGW points to a high-pressure ridge delivering mostly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds over Warsaw on August 12, supporting maximum temperatures of 23–24 °C. This range aligns with climatological averages for mid-August and explains the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Differentiation between 23 °C and 24 °C will depend on the exact timing of peak insolation and any minor afternoon boundary-layer mixing, while probabilities for 25 °C or higher remain low absent unexpected warm advection. Updated short-range model runs and observational data from the next 48 hours will narrow the remaining uncertainty for traders.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,627Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Poland's IMGW points to a high-pressure ridge delivering mostly sunny skies and light northwesterly winds over Warsaw on August 12, supporting maximum temperatures of 23–24 °C. This range aligns with climatological averages for mid-August and explains the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Differentiation between 23 °C and 24 °C will depend on the exact timing of peak insolation and any minor afternoon boundary-layer mixing, while probabilities for 25 °C or higher remain low absent unexpected warm advection. Updated short-range model runs and observational data from the next 48 hours will narrow the remaining uncertainty for traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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