Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs shows a strengthening southerly flow advecting warmer air masses into central Poland ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting afternoon maximum temperatures near 26–28°C in Warsaw on September 8 under limited cloud cover and light winds. Official guidance from agencies like the UK Met Office and local Polish meteorological services aligns with this range, though ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any diurnal heating peaks or residual moisture. Market-implied odds concentrate on 27°C as the modal outcome because traders weigh these dynamical factors against historical September climatology, where such setups frequently produce 1–2°C forecast adjustments before verification. New 12z and 18z model cycles plus updated IMGW briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key data points that could shift probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
28°C 36%
27°C 35%
25°C 20%
26°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
4%
25°C
20%
26°C
14%
27°C
35%
28°C
22%
29°C
7%
30°C
4%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 36%
27°C 35%
25°C 20%
26°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Wol.
2%
23°C
$0 Wol.
4%
24°C
$0 Wol.
4%
25°C
$0 Wol.
20%
26°C
$15 Wol.
14%
27°C
$517 Wol.
35%
28°C
$48 Wol.
22%
29°C
$0 Wol.
7%
30°C
$0 Wol.
4%
31°C
$0 Wol.
3%
32°C or higher
$0 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs shows a strengthening southerly flow advecting warmer air masses into central Poland ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting afternoon maximum temperatures near 26–28°C in Warsaw on September 8 under limited cloud cover and light winds. Official guidance from agencies like the UK Met Office and local Polish meteorological services aligns with this range, though ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any diurnal heating peaks or residual moisture. Market-implied odds concentrate on 27°C as the modal outcome because traders weigh these dynamical factors against historical September climatology, where such setups frequently produce 1–2°C forecast adjustments before verification. New 12z and 18z model cycles plus updated IMGW briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key data points that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$580Data zakończenia
Sep 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs shows a strengthening southerly flow advecting warmer air masses into central Poland ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting afternoon maximum temperatures near 26–28°C in Warsaw on September 8 under limited cloud cover and light winds. Official guidance from agencies like the UK Met Office and local Polish meteorological services aligns with this range, though ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any diurnal heating peaks or residual moisture. Market-implied odds concentrate on 27°C as the modal outcome because traders weigh these dynamical factors against historical September climatology, where such setups frequently produce 1–2°C forecast adjustments before verification. New 12z and 18z model cycles plus updated IMGW briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key data points that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$580Data zakończenia
Sep 8, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 6, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs shows a strengthening southerly flow advecting warmer air masses into central Poland ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting afternoon maximum temperatures near 26–28°C in Warsaw on September 8 under limited cloud cover and light winds. Official guidance from agencies like the UK Met Office and local Polish meteorological services aligns with this range, though ensemble spreads highlight sensitivity to exact timing of any diurnal heating peaks or residual moisture. Market-implied odds concentrate on 27°C as the modal outcome because traders weigh these dynamical factors against historical September climatology, where such setups frequently produce 1–2°C forecast adjustments before verification. New 12z and 18z model cycles plus updated IMGW briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key data points that could shift probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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