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Gospodarka·Stawki Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?

icon for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
Gospodarka·Stawki Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?

NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Wol.

Polymarket

4.90%

$0 Wol.

38%

4.83%

$0 Wol.

38%

4.78%

$0 Wol.

50%

4.73%

$0 Wol.

50%

4.70%

$0 Wol.

51%

4.67%

$0 Wol.

51%

4.64%

$0 Wol.

51%

4.61%

$0 Wol.

51%

4.58%

$0 Wol.

62%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have driven expectations for a potential 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, with futures pricing roughly 60-67% odds of tightening. This shift, alongside geopolitical tensions elevating oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns, has pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to around 4.53% as of September 2, near multi-month highs. Persistent fiscal pressures from federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate bond issuance for AI-related investments have also lifted term premiums, supporting higher real yields despite somewhat softer recent employment data. Key upcoming releases, including the September 4 jobs report and CPI on September 11, could further influence medium-term policy expectations and yield volatility through month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Wolumen
$0
Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have driven expectations for a potential 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, with futures pricing roughly 60-67% odds of tightening. This shift, alongside geopolitical tensions elevating oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns, has pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to around 4.53% as of September 2, near multi-month highs. Persistent fiscal pressures from federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and heavy corporate bond issuance for AI-related investments have also lifted term premiums, supporting higher real yields despite somewhat softer recent employment data. Key upcoming releases, including the September 4 jobs report and CPI on September 11, could further influence medium-term policy expectations and yield volatility through month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Wolumen
$0
Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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Często zadawane pytania

"How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 9 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "4.58%" z 62%, za nim "4.70%" z 51%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 62¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 62% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony Sep 2, 2026. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

Aby handlować na "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?", przeglądaj 9 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?" jest "4.58%" z 62%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 62% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "4.70%" z 51%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.