The weak June employment report, showing just 57,000 nonfarm payroll gains against consensus expectations near 110,000–115,000, anchors trader positioning across all July bins at equal implied probabilities. Downward revisions to prior months, a drop in labor force participation to 61.5%, and an unemployment rate easing to 4.2% highlight cooling momentum amid cautious hiring, tariff-related uncertainty, and elevated inflation. Wage growth held solid at 3.5% year-over-year, while sectors like health care and professional services continued modest gains. This mixed data—combined with potential policy effects and upcoming July indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims—creates balanced uncertainty, with outcomes hinging on whether the slowdown persists or rebounds before the August release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many jobs added in July?
How many jobs added in July?
50k – 100k 44%
200k+ 40%
100k – 150k 39%
<0 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 7, 2026
<0
39%
0 – 50k
37%
50k – 100k
44%
100k – 150k
39%
150k – 200k
38%
200k+
40%
50k – 100k 44%
200k+ 40%
100k – 150k 39%
<0 39%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 7, 2026
<0
$0 Wol.
39%
0 – 50k
$0 Wol.
37%
50k – 100k
$0 Wol.
44%
100k – 150k
$0 Wol.
39%
150k – 200k
$0 Wol.
38%
200k+
$0 Wol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThe weak June employment report, showing just 57,000 nonfarm payroll gains against consensus expectations near 110,000–115,000, anchors trader positioning across all July bins at equal implied probabilities. Downward revisions to prior months, a drop in labor force participation to 61.5%, and an unemployment rate easing to 4.2% highlight cooling momentum amid cautious hiring, tariff-related uncertainty, and elevated inflation. Wage growth held solid at 3.5% year-over-year, while sectors like health care and professional services continued modest gains. This mixed data—combined with potential policy effects and upcoming July indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims—creates balanced uncertainty, with outcomes hinging on whether the slowdown persists or rebounds before the August release.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Rynek otwarty: Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThe weak June employment report, showing just 57,000 nonfarm payroll gains against consensus expectations near 110,000–115,000, anchors trader positioning across all July bins at equal implied probabilities. Downward revisions to prior months, a drop in labor force participation to 61.5%, and an unemployment rate easing to 4.2% highlight cooling momentum amid cautious hiring, tariff-related uncertainty, and elevated inflation. Wage growth held solid at 3.5% year-over-year, while sectors like health care and professional services continued modest gains. This mixed data—combined with potential policy effects and upcoming July indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims—creates balanced uncertainty, with outcomes hinging on whether the slowdown persists or rebounds before the August release.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The weak June employment report, showing just 57,000 nonfarm payroll gains against consensus expectations near 110,000–115,000, anchors trader positioning across all July bins at equal implied probabilities. Downward revisions to prior months, a drop in labor force participation to 61.5%, and an unemployment rate easing to 4.2% highlight cooling momentum amid cautious hiring, tariff-related uncertainty, and elevated inflation. Wage growth held solid at 3.5% year-over-year, while sectors like health care and professional services continued modest gains. This mixed data—combined with potential policy effects and upcoming July indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims—creates balanced uncertainty, with outcomes hinging on whether the slowdown persists or rebounds before the August release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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