Trader sentiment for August 2026 U.S. tornado totals clusters around the long-term monthly average of 80–85 because mid-month conditions show only modest instability and weak shear across the Plains and Midwest, per recent SPC convective outlooks. With 17 days elapsed and no major outbreak yet confirmed, early counts remain below the pace needed for an above-average finish. Late-summer patterns typically suppress widespread tornado activity relative to spring peaks, though any strengthening low-level jet or tropical moisture could still push totals into the 80–99 range. Model consensus and climatological analogs support the tight 60–79 versus 80–99 spread, reflecting genuine uncertainty in remaining convective opportunities before month-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
60-79 31%
80-99 29%
100–119 24%
200+ 14.6%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
<40
1%
40–59
9%
60-79
31%
80-99
29%
100–119
24%
120–139
2%
140-169
8%
170–199
3%
200+
15%
60-79 31%
80-99 29%
100–119 24%
200+ 14.6%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$258 Wol.
1%
40–59
$152 Wol.
9%
60-79
$85 Wol.
31%
80-99
$58 Wol.
29%
100–119
$67 Wol.
24%
120–139
$52 Wol.
2%
140-169
$209 Wol.
8%
170–199
$157 Wol.
3%
200+
$245 Wol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for August 2026 U.S. tornado totals clusters around the long-term monthly average of 80–85 because mid-month conditions show only modest instability and weak shear across the Plains and Midwest, per recent SPC convective outlooks. With 17 days elapsed and no major outbreak yet confirmed, early counts remain below the pace needed for an above-average finish. Late-summer patterns typically suppress widespread tornado activity relative to spring peaks, though any strengthening low-level jet or tropical moisture could still push totals into the 80–99 range. Model consensus and climatological analogs support the tight 60–79 versus 80–99 spread, reflecting genuine uncertainty in remaining convective opportunities before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,284Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for August 2026 U.S. tornado totals clusters around the long-term monthly average of 80–85 because mid-month conditions show only modest instability and weak shear across the Plains and Midwest, per recent SPC convective outlooks. With 17 days elapsed and no major outbreak yet confirmed, early counts remain below the pace needed for an above-average finish. Late-summer patterns typically suppress widespread tornado activity relative to spring peaks, though any strengthening low-level jet or tropical moisture could still push totals into the 80–99 range. Model consensus and climatological analogs support the tight 60–79 versus 80–99 spread, reflecting genuine uncertainty in remaining convective opportunities before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Wolumen
$1,284Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for August 2026 U.S. tornado totals clusters around the long-term monthly average of 80–85 because mid-month conditions show only modest instability and weak shear across the Plains and Midwest, per recent SPC convective outlooks. With 17 days elapsed and no major outbreak yet confirmed, early counts remain below the pace needed for an above-average finish. Late-summer patterns typically suppress widespread tornado activity relative to spring peaks, though any strengthening low-level jet or tropical moisture could still push totals into the 80–99 range. Model consensus and climatological analogs support the tight 60–79 versus 80–99 spread, reflecting genuine uncertainty in remaining convective opportunities before month-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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