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Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?

icon for Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?
Świat·Bliski Wschód

Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.7%

Reza Pahlavi 8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 3.6%

Brak głowy państwa 2.9%

Polymarket

$8,762,079 Wol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.7%

Reza Pahlavi 8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 3.6%

Brak głowy państwa 2.9%

Polymarket

$8,762,079 Wol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,078,973 Wol.

65%

Reza Pahlavi

$210,093 Wol.

8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$229,515 Wol.

4%

Brak głowy państwa

$495,994 Wol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$220,983 Wol.

3%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$332,472 Wol.

2%

Ahmad Vahidi

$305,529 Wol.

2%

Navid Shomali

$89,614 Wol.

1%

Mahmud Ahmadineżad

$148,791 Wol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$867,081 Wol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$360,642 Wol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$819,251 Wol.

1%

Maryam Radżawi

$324,785 Wol.

1%

Massoud Radżawi

$81,554 Wol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$454,129 Wol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,607 Wol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$104,860 Wol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$93,708 Wol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$291,767 Wol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$181,202 Wol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$52,010 Wol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$101,935 Wol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$83,015 Wol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$67,545 Wol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$53,928 Wol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,427 Wol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$87,111 Wol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$76,778 Wol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$39,296 Wol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,670 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s 64.7% share reflects the Assembly of Experts’ March 2026 selection of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son following his father’s assassination in late February during the Iran war, establishing a clear path for clerical and IRGC continuity. Recent statements attributed to Mojtaba on Gulf security and anti-Western policy have reinforced perceptions of institutional stability, though his absence from public view since appointment and reports of injuries have introduced limited uncertainty about his long-term tenure through year-end. Lower-priced alternatives such as Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi capture trader expectations of possible IRGC or pragmatic shifts if health or factional pressures alter the succession. No major new political events have emerged in the past month to materially shift these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Wolumen
$8,762,079
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s 64.7% share reflects the Assembly of Experts’ March 2026 selection of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son following his father’s assassination in late February during the Iran war, establishing a clear path for clerical and IRGC continuity. Recent statements attributed to Mojtaba on Gulf security and anti-Western policy have reinforced perceptions of institutional stability, though his absence from public view since appointment and reports of injuries have introduced limited uncertainty about his long-term tenure through year-end. Lower-priced alternatives such as Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi capture trader expectations of possible IRGC or pragmatic shifts if health or factional pressures alter the succession. No major new political events have emerged in the past month to materially shift these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Wolumen
$8,762,079
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 32 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Mojtaba Khamenei" z 65%, za nim "Reza Pahlavi" z 8%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 65¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 65% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" wygenerował $8.8 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Mar 1, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?", przeglądaj 32 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" jest "Mojtaba Khamenei" z 65%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 65% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Reza Pahlavi" z 8%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Lider Iranu koniec 2026 roku?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.