The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–14°C for Munich’s September 1 minimum reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range numerical weather models two days ahead. Primary drivers include variable low-level advection of cooler maritime air versus warmer continental flow, modulated by evolving high-pressure ridging and potential weak frontal passages across central Europe. Diurnal cooling rates will also hinge on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under late-summer conditions. Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS show spread in overnight minima tied to these factors, with new model cycles expected to narrow the range before resolution. Historical early-September baselines near 12–13°C provide context but underscore how small synoptic shifts can alter outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Munich on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 1?
12°C 29%
11°C 27%
13°C 27%
14°C 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
7%
10°C
14%
11°C
27%
12°C
29%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
12%
16°C
2%
17°C
15%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
7%
12°C 29%
11°C 27%
13°C 27%
14°C 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
9°C or below
$93 Wol.
7%
10°C
$0 Wol.
14%
11°C
$0 Wol.
27%
12°C
$0 Wol.
29%
13°C
$0 Wol.
27%
14°C
$0 Wol.
26%
15°C
$0 Wol.
12%
16°C
$0 Wol.
2%
17°C
$5 Wol.
15%
18°C
$10 Wol.
8%
19°C or higher
$10 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–14°C for Munich’s September 1 minimum reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range numerical weather models two days ahead. Primary drivers include variable low-level advection of cooler maritime air versus warmer continental flow, modulated by evolving high-pressure ridging and potential weak frontal passages across central Europe. Diurnal cooling rates will also hinge on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under late-summer conditions. Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS show spread in overnight minima tied to these factors, with new model cycles expected to narrow the range before resolution. Historical early-September baselines near 12–13°C provide context but underscore how small synoptic shifts can alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$118Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–14°C for Munich’s September 1 minimum reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range numerical weather models two days ahead. Primary drivers include variable low-level advection of cooler maritime air versus warmer continental flow, modulated by evolving high-pressure ridging and potential weak frontal passages across central Europe. Diurnal cooling rates will also hinge on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under late-summer conditions. Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS show spread in overnight minima tied to these factors, with new model cycles expected to narrow the range before resolution. Historical early-September baselines near 12–13°C provide context but underscore how small synoptic shifts can alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$118Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–14°C for Munich’s September 1 minimum reflects substantial uncertainty in short-range numerical weather models two days ahead. Primary drivers include variable low-level advection of cooler maritime air versus warmer continental flow, modulated by evolving high-pressure ridging and potential weak frontal passages across central Europe. Diurnal cooling rates will also hinge on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under late-summer conditions. Recent ensemble runs from the ECMWF and GFS show spread in overnight minima tied to these factors, with new model cycles expected to narrow the range before resolution. Historical early-September baselines near 12–13°C provide context but underscore how small synoptic shifts can alter outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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