Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a low in the upper 50s for San Francisco on August 28, driven by a strengthening marine layer and onshore westerly flow that limits overnight radiative cooling. Persistent stratus and fog—locally termed “Karl the Fog”—along with dew points near 55–56 °F and sustained 10–15 mph winds keep temperatures from dropping sharply, consistent with the city’s August climatological average low of about 56 °F. Trader odds clustered tightly between 54–61 °F reflect lingering uncertainty over exact fog timing, wind gust strength, and microsite differences between downtown and airport observations. A modest warming trend earlier in the week has given way to this cooler regime, narrowing the plausible range while leaving room for small revisions in the final NWS minimum.