Trader sentiment favors a peak of 35–36°C in Taipei on August 28 because short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies such as Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration show a ridge of high pressure supporting daytime highs near 35°C, with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow. The close spread between the top two outcomes reflects model uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island amplification, both of which can add or subtract 1°C. Sea-surface temperatures in the Taiwan Strait remain above the seasonal mean, providing a modest heat source, while any increase in afternoon convection or a subtle shift in steering flow could cap the maximum below 35°C. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.