Latest forecast model runs for Tokyo on August 28 show highs likely peaking near 29–31°C amid increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lighter winds associated with a passing weather system, tempering the hotter conditions seen earlier in the week. This positioning explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds, as traders weigh the balance between residual summer warmth and reduced solar insolation from overcast skies. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any afternoon clearing, urban heat island amplification in central districts, and ensemble spread in humidity and boundary-layer mixing, all of which introduce modest uncertainty in maximum readings. Historical August averages near 31–32°C provide context, but recent model consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes unless drier air advects in sooner than expected.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
30°C 31%
31°C 28%
29°C 27%
32°C 20%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
19%
30°C
31%
31°C
28%
32°C
14%
33°C
5%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 31%
31°C 28%
29°C 27%
32°C 20%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
$49 Wol.
1%
27°C
$26 Wol.
2%
28°C
$37 Wol.
4%
29°C
$6 Wol.
19%
30°C
$0 Wol.
31%
31°C
$47 Wol.
28%
32°C
$5 Wol.
14%
33°C
$8 Wol.
5%
34°C
$5 Wol.
3%
35°C
$26 Wol.
2%
36°C or higher
$298 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast model runs for Tokyo on August 28 show highs likely peaking near 29–31°C amid increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lighter winds associated with a passing weather system, tempering the hotter conditions seen earlier in the week. This positioning explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds, as traders weigh the balance between residual summer warmth and reduced solar insolation from overcast skies. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any afternoon clearing, urban heat island amplification in central districts, and ensemble spread in humidity and boundary-layer mixing, all of which introduce modest uncertainty in maximum readings. Historical August averages near 31–32°C provide context, but recent model consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes unless drier air advects in sooner than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$507Data zakończenia
Aug 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast model runs for Tokyo on August 28 show highs likely peaking near 29–31°C amid increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lighter winds associated with a passing weather system, tempering the hotter conditions seen earlier in the week. This positioning explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds, as traders weigh the balance between residual summer warmth and reduced solar insolation from overcast skies. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any afternoon clearing, urban heat island amplification in central districts, and ensemble spread in humidity and boundary-layer mixing, all of which introduce modest uncertainty in maximum readings. Historical August averages near 31–32°C provide context, but recent model consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes unless drier air advects in sooner than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$507Data zakończenia
Aug 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast model runs for Tokyo on August 28 show highs likely peaking near 29–31°C amid increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and lighter winds associated with a passing weather system, tempering the hotter conditions seen earlier in the week. This positioning explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those thresholds, as traders weigh the balance between residual summer warmth and reduced solar insolation from overcast skies. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any afternoon clearing, urban heat island amplification in central districts, and ensemble spread in humidity and boundary-layer mixing, all of which introduce modest uncertainty in maximum readings. Historical August averages near 31–32°C provide context, but recent model consensus favors slightly cooler outcomes unless drier air advects in sooner than expected.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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