**Marine layer depth and steering winds are the dominant near-term variables for San Francisco’s minimum temperature on September 23.** Official short-range guidance from the National Weather Service and blended models currently favors a low in the upper 50s under patchy fog transitioning to sunny conditions, consistent with the September climatological average of 55.7 °F. However, the near-even market-implied odds between 47 °F or below and 66 °F or higher reflect uncertainty over whether a deeper marine layer will suppress nighttime radiational cooling or whether lighter offshore flow will allow clearer skies and warmer minimums. Historical extremes on the date range from 49 °F to well above 60 °F, underscoring how small shifts in inversion height or wind direction—difficult to resolve more than 48 hours out—can swing the outcome across the wide resolution bins. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
47°F or below 99%
66°F or higher 98%
48-49°F 38%
64-65°F 38%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 23, 2026
47°F or below
99%
48-49°F
38%
50-51°F
21%
52-53°F
20%
54-55°F
22%
56-57°F
22%
58-59°F
20%
60-61°F
21%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
38%
66°F or higher
98%
47°F or below 99%
66°F or higher 98%
48-49°F 38%
64-65°F 38%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 23, 2026
47°F or below
$10 Wol.
99%
48-49°F
$10 Wol.
38%
50-51°F
$0 Wol.
21%
52-53°F
$0 Wol.
20%
54-55°F
$0 Wol.
22%
56-57°F
$0 Wol.
22%
58-59°F
$0 Wol.
20%
60-61°F
$0 Wol.
21%
62-63°F
$10 Wol.
1%
64-65°F
$10 Wol.
38%
66°F or higher
$10 Wol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer depth and steering winds are the dominant near-term variables for San Francisco’s minimum temperature on September 23.** Official short-range guidance from the National Weather Service and blended models currently favors a low in the upper 50s under patchy fog transitioning to sunny conditions, consistent with the September climatological average of 55.7 °F. However, the near-even market-implied odds between 47 °F or below and 66 °F or higher reflect uncertainty over whether a deeper marine layer will suppress nighttime radiational cooling or whether lighter offshore flow will allow clearer skies and warmer minimums. Historical extremes on the date range from 49 °F to well above 60 °F, underscoring how small shifts in inversion height or wind direction—difficult to resolve more than 48 hours out—can swing the outcome across the wide resolution bins. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer depth and steering winds are the dominant near-term variables for San Francisco’s minimum temperature on September 23.** Official short-range guidance from the National Weather Service and blended models currently favors a low in the upper 50s under patchy fog transitioning to sunny conditions, consistent with the September climatological average of 55.7 °F. However, the near-even market-implied odds between 47 °F or below and 66 °F or higher reflect uncertainty over whether a deeper marine layer will suppress nighttime radiational cooling or whether lighter offshore flow will allow clearer skies and warmer minimums. Historical extremes on the date range from 49 °F to well above 60 °F, underscoring how small shifts in inversion height or wind direction—difficult to resolve more than 48 hours out—can swing the outcome across the wide resolution bins. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Marine layer depth and steering winds are the dominant near-term variables for San Francisco’s minimum temperature on September 23.** Official short-range guidance from the National Weather Service and blended models currently favors a low in the upper 50s under patchy fog transitioning to sunny conditions, consistent with the September climatological average of 55.7 °F. However, the near-even market-implied odds between 47 °F or below and 66 °F or higher reflect uncertainty over whether a deeper marine layer will suppress nighttime radiational cooling or whether lighter offshore flow will allow clearer skies and warmer minimums. Historical extremes on the date range from 49 °F to well above 60 °F, underscoring how small shifts in inversion height or wind direction—difficult to resolve more than 48 hours out—can swing the outcome across the wide resolution bins. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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