The brief remaining window through December 2026 drives the strong market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ event near Los Angeles. USGS long-term forecasts place the 30-year probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake in the region at roughly 60 percent, implying an annualized background rate well below 4 percent for an M6.5+ shock within typical resolution boundaries. Recent seismic monitoring shows only minor activity, with no magnitude 5+ events recorded near central Los Angeles in 2026 and limited moderate shaking farther afield. The last comparable event, the 1994 Northridge quake, occurred more than three decades ago on local fault systems. An unexpected foreshock sequence or rapid strain release on the San Andreas or nearby blind thrusts could still raise odds, though current USGS data and model consensus indicate such developments remain unlikely before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
6% szansa
$16,533 Wol.
$16,533 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% szansa
$16,533 Wol.
$16,533 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The brief remaining window through December 2026 drives the strong market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ event near Los Angeles. USGS long-term forecasts place the 30-year probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake in the region at roughly 60 percent, implying an annualized background rate well below 4 percent for an M6.5+ shock within typical resolution boundaries. Recent seismic monitoring shows only minor activity, with no magnitude 5+ events recorded near central Los Angeles in 2026 and limited moderate shaking farther afield. The last comparable event, the 1994 Northridge quake, occurred more than three decades ago on local fault systems. An unexpected foreshock sequence or rapid strain release on the San Andreas or nearby blind thrusts could still raise odds, though current USGS data and model consensus indicate such developments remain unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,533Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The brief remaining window through December 2026 drives the strong market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ event near Los Angeles. USGS long-term forecasts place the 30-year probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake in the region at roughly 60 percent, implying an annualized background rate well below 4 percent for an M6.5+ shock within typical resolution boundaries. Recent seismic monitoring shows only minor activity, with no magnitude 5+ events recorded near central Los Angeles in 2026 and limited moderate shaking farther afield. The last comparable event, the 1994 Northridge quake, occurred more than three decades ago on local fault systems. An unexpected foreshock sequence or rapid strain release on the San Andreas or nearby blind thrusts could still raise odds, though current USGS data and model consensus indicate such developments remain unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Wolumen
$16,533Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The brief remaining window through December 2026 drives the strong market-implied odds against a magnitude 6.5+ event near Los Angeles. USGS long-term forecasts place the 30-year probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake in the region at roughly 60 percent, implying an annualized background rate well below 4 percent for an M6.5+ shock within typical resolution boundaries. Recent seismic monitoring shows only minor activity, with no magnitude 5+ events recorded near central Los Angeles in 2026 and limited moderate shaking farther afield. The last comparable event, the 1994 Northridge quake, occurred more than three decades ago on local fault systems. An unexpected foreshock sequence or rapid strain release on the San Andreas or nearby blind thrusts could still raise odds, though current USGS data and model consensus indicate such developments remain unlikely before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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