Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems directly from its acquisition and continued possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, which U.S. law under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA explicitly bars from coexisting with F-35 transfers or support. As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed Ankara has not satisfied the statutory conditions of divesting the systems and providing credible future assurances. Diplomatic engagement intensified in 2026, including bilateral talks at the July NATO summit and Trump administration signals of potential sanctions relief, yet reported efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a third country have stalled without resolution. Related approvals, such as F110 engines for Turkey’s KAAN fighter, have advanced separately, but full program reentry hinges on verifiable compliance that would allow presidential certification to Congress.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$43,461 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2027
26%
$43,461 Wol.
December 31, 2026
$31,959 Wol.
10%
June 30, 2027
$11,502 Wol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems directly from its acquisition and continued possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, which U.S. law under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA explicitly bars from coexisting with F-35 transfers or support. As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed Ankara has not satisfied the statutory conditions of divesting the systems and providing credible future assurances. Diplomatic engagement intensified in 2026, including bilateral talks at the July NATO summit and Trump administration signals of potential sanctions relief, yet reported efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a third country have stalled without resolution. Related approvals, such as F110 engines for Turkey’s KAAN fighter, have advanced separately, but full program reentry hinges on verifiable compliance that would allow presidential certification to Congress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Wolumen
$43,461Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems directly from its acquisition and continued possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, which U.S. law under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA explicitly bars from coexisting with F-35 transfers or support. As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed Ankara has not satisfied the statutory conditions of divesting the systems and providing credible future assurances. Diplomatic engagement intensified in 2026, including bilateral talks at the July NATO summit and Trump administration signals of potential sanctions relief, yet reported efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a third country have stalled without resolution. Related approvals, such as F110 engines for Turkey’s KAAN fighter, have advanced separately, but full program reentry hinges on verifiable compliance that would allow presidential certification to Congress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Wolumen
$43,461Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems directly from its acquisition and continued possession of Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, which U.S. law under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA explicitly bars from coexisting with F-35 transfers or support. As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed Ankara has not satisfied the statutory conditions of divesting the systems and providing credible future assurances. Diplomatic engagement intensified in 2026, including bilateral talks at the July NATO summit and Trump administration signals of potential sanctions relief, yet reported efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a third country have stalled without resolution. Related approvals, such as F110 engines for Turkey’s KAAN fighter, have advanced separately, but full program reentry hinges on verifiable compliance that would allow presidential certification to Congress.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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