Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the elevated trader consensus against a comprehensive peace agreement by the end of 2026. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated talks since 2025, including sessions in Anchorage, Abu Dhabi, and Geneva, yielded only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes over territorial control—particularly Donbas—or Ukraine's security guarantees and NATO alignment. Russian officials continue to condition any ceasefire or deal on maximalist demands, rejecting recent European-backed frameworks from the E3 countries that emphasize robust protections for Kyiv. Ukrainian proposals for an unconditional ceasefire have similarly gone unaccepted, while battlefield actions including Ukrainian long-range strikes persist alongside brief holiday pauses. These entrenched positions and lack of diplomatic breakthroughs sustain the view that a binding accord remains unlikely within the remaining timeline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano17% szansa
$2,547,144 Wol.
$2,547,144 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
17% szansa
$2,547,144 Wol.
$2,547,144 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the elevated trader consensus against a comprehensive peace agreement by the end of 2026. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated talks since 2025, including sessions in Anchorage, Abu Dhabi, and Geneva, yielded only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes over territorial control—particularly Donbas—or Ukraine's security guarantees and NATO alignment. Russian officials continue to condition any ceasefire or deal on maximalist demands, rejecting recent European-backed frameworks from the E3 countries that emphasize robust protections for Kyiv. Ukrainian proposals for an unconditional ceasefire have similarly gone unaccepted, while battlefield actions including Ukrainian long-range strikes persist alongside brief holiday pauses. These entrenched positions and lack of diplomatic breakthroughs sustain the view that a binding accord remains unlikely within the remaining timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,547,144Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the elevated trader consensus against a comprehensive peace agreement by the end of 2026. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated talks since 2025, including sessions in Anchorage, Abu Dhabi, and Geneva, yielded only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes over territorial control—particularly Donbas—or Ukraine's security guarantees and NATO alignment. Russian officials continue to condition any ceasefire or deal on maximalist demands, rejecting recent European-backed frameworks from the E3 countries that emphasize robust protections for Kyiv. Ukrainian proposals for an unconditional ceasefire have similarly gone unaccepted, while battlefield actions including Ukrainian long-range strikes persist alongside brief holiday pauses. These entrenched positions and lack of diplomatic breakthroughs sustain the view that a binding accord remains unlikely within the remaining timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$2,547,144Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations underpins the elevated trader consensus against a comprehensive peace agreement by the end of 2026. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated talks since 2025, including sessions in Anchorage, Abu Dhabi, and Geneva, yielded only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes over territorial control—particularly Donbas—or Ukraine's security guarantees and NATO alignment. Russian officials continue to condition any ceasefire or deal on maximalist demands, rejecting recent European-backed frameworks from the E3 countries that emphasize robust protections for Kyiv. Ukrainian proposals for an unconditional ceasefire have similarly gone unaccepted, while battlefield actions including Ukrainian long-range strikes persist alongside brief holiday pauses. These entrenched positions and lack of diplomatic breakthroughs sustain the view that a binding accord remains unlikely within the remaining timeline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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