Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (38%) to Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth of 3% or higher, followed by the 2.0–2.5% and 2.5–3.0% bands, reflecting optimism around resilient consumer spending and business investment that offset Q2’s 1.5% annualized pace. Professional forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed project 2.5% growth for the current quarter, with annual 2026 estimates clustered near 2.1–2.2%, supported by stable labor markets (unemployment near 4.3–4.5%) and productivity gains amid elevated but moderating inflation. Recent data revisions and leading indicators point to a modest rebound from Q2’s slowdown, while upcoming releases on employment, CPI, and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing factors that could shift market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
≥3.0% 38%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$18,210 Wol.
$18,210 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
7%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
21%
≥3.0%
38%
≥3.0% 38%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$18,210 Wol.
$18,210 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Wol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$470 Wol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Wol.
7%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Wol.
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Wol.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$3,152 Wol.
21%
≥3.0%
$10,939 Wol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (38%) to Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth of 3% or higher, followed by the 2.0–2.5% and 2.5–3.0% bands, reflecting optimism around resilient consumer spending and business investment that offset Q2’s 1.5% annualized pace. Professional forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed project 2.5% growth for the current quarter, with annual 2026 estimates clustered near 2.1–2.2%, supported by stable labor markets (unemployment near 4.3–4.5%) and productivity gains amid elevated but moderating inflation. Recent data revisions and leading indicators point to a modest rebound from Q2’s slowdown, while upcoming releases on employment, CPI, and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing factors that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$18,210Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (38%) to Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth of 3% or higher, followed by the 2.0–2.5% and 2.5–3.0% bands, reflecting optimism around resilient consumer spending and business investment that offset Q2’s 1.5% annualized pace. Professional forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed project 2.5% growth for the current quarter, with annual 2026 estimates clustered near 2.1–2.2%, supported by stable labor markets (unemployment near 4.3–4.5%) and productivity gains amid elevated but moderating inflation. Recent data revisions and leading indicators point to a modest rebound from Q2’s slowdown, while upcoming releases on employment, CPI, and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing factors that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Wolumen
$18,210Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (38%) to Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth of 3% or higher, followed by the 2.0–2.5% and 2.5–3.0% bands, reflecting optimism around resilient consumer spending and business investment that offset Q2’s 1.5% annualized pace. Professional forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed project 2.5% growth for the current quarter, with annual 2026 estimates clustered near 2.1–2.2%, supported by stable labor markets (unemployment near 4.3–4.5%) and productivity gains amid elevated but moderating inflation. Recent data revisions and leading indicators point to a modest rebound from Q2’s slowdown, while upcoming releases on employment, CPI, and the September FOMC meeting represent key swing factors that could shift market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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