Ukraine's constitutional framework and ongoing martial law remain the primary drivers behind traders' strong consensus that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will stay in office through June 30, 2026. Martial law, in effect since February 2022 and extended in 90-day increments through at least early August 2026, bars presidential elections under Ukrainian law, while Article 108 ensures the incumbent continues exercising powers until a successor assumes office. Zelenskyy has repeatedly tied any vote to a ceasefire and security guarantees, with no scheduled parliamentary action or diplomatic breakthrough positioned to alter that timeline before the market resolution date. Although a sudden negotiated end to active hostilities or an unexpected constitutional ruling could open a path to earlier voting, current institutional and security conditions make such shifts improbable within the next six weeks.