EL predictions & odds

Geopolitics·Cape Of Good Hope

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

$15M Vol.

$158K today

$353K Liq.

271

Ends in 3 months

19%

December 31

$15M Vol.

$158K today

$353K Liq.

271

Ends in 3 months

Geopolitics·Houthis

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?

$44.7K Vol.

$47.7K Liq.

Ends in 10 days

65%

25-29

$44.7K Vol.

$47.7K Liq.

Ends in 10 days

Weather·Climate

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

$48.4K Vol.

$22.7K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

77%

Over 2.5

$48.4K Vol.

$22.7K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Geopolitics·Houthis

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?

$14.3K Vol.

$19.1K Liq.

69%

<170

$14.3K Vol.

$19.1K Liq.

Elections·US Election

2026 El Paso County Judge Election Winner

$27.2K Vol.

$22.1K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

99%

Ricardo Samaniego

$27.2K Vol.

$22.1K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Weather·Climate

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

$9.2K Vol.

$2.6K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

94%

$9.2K Vol.

$2.6K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Geopolitics·Houthis

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

$5.4K Vol.

$35.4K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

16%

December 31

$5.4K Vol.

$35.4K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Sports·Games

El Paso Locomotive FC vs. FC Tulsa - More Markets

$0 Vol.

$28.6K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

27%

El Paso Locomotive FC

$0 Vol.

$28.6K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Sports·Games

El Paso Locomotive FC vs. FC Tulsa - Exact Score

$0 Vol.

$15.0K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Yes

$0 Vol.

$15.0K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Weather·Climate

Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?

$777 Vol.

$573 Liq.

Ends in 6 months

77%

$777 Vol.

$573 Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Sports·Games

El Paso Locomotive FC vs. FC Tulsa

$58 Vol.

$8.2K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

52%

Yes

$58 Vol.

$8.2K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

World

Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...?

$84.5K Vol.

$424 Liq.

Ends in 3 months

14%

$84.5K Vol.

$424 Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Sports·Concacaf Nations League

Guatemala vs. El Salvador

$0 Vol.

$1.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 days

46%

Yes

$0 Vol.

$1.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 days

Sports·Games

El Paso Locomotive FC vs. FC Tulsa - Halftime Result

$0 Vol.

$817 Liq.

Ends in 5 days

39%

Yes

$0 Vol.

$817 Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Sports·Games

Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. COD Meknès

$0 Vol.

$781 Liq.

Ends in 5 days

47%

Yes

$0 Vol.

$781 Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Sports·Concacaf Nations League

Guatemala vs. El Salvador - More Markets

$0 Vol.

$698 Liq.

Ends in 8 days

50%

El Salvador

$0 Vol.

$698 Liq.

Ends in 8 days

Sports·Concacaf Nations League

El Salvador vs. Martinique

$0 Vol.

$655 Liq.

Ends in 5 days

48%

Yes

$0 Vol.

$655 Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Sports·Concacaf Nations League

El Salvador vs. Jamaica - More Markets

$0 Vol.

$599 Liq.

Ends in 12 days

50%

El Salvador

$0 Vol.

$599 Liq.

Ends in 12 days

Sports·Concacaf Nations League

El Salvador vs. Martinique - More Markets

$0 Vol.

$575 Liq.

Ends in 5 days

49%

El Salvador

$0 Vol.

$575 Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Sports·Games

M25 Sharm ElSheikh: Karim Sherif Abdellatif Abdo vs Gawad El Feky

$0 Vol.

$499 Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Karim Sherif Abdellatif Abdo

$0 Vol.

$499 Liq.

Ends in 7 days

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Event Status

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like EL.

Polymarket currently hosts 544 active markets for EL that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $15.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 19% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on EL predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for EL shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?” without ever needing to place a trade.

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the EL prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the EL prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

EL predictions & odds

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket?

What types of EL prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

How do EL markets work on Polymarket?

What is the current top EL prediction?

Why use Polymarket for EL predictions?

How accurate are Polymarket’s EL odds?

Can I track EL predictions without trading?

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How are markets resolved?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket?

What types of EL prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

How do EL markets work on Polymarket?

What is the current top EL prediction?

Why use Polymarket for EL predictions?

How accurate are Polymarket’s EL odds?

Can I track EL predictions without trading?

How do I get started with EL markets on Polymarket?

How are markets resolved?

EL predictions & odds