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Hamas predictions & odds

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Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

7%

June 30, 2026

$2M Vol.

$17.1K Liq.

159

Ends in about 2 months

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

14%

June 30

$4M Vol.

$9.9K Liq.

979

Ends in about 2 months

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

10%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$12.5K Liq.

357

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

32%

$142K Vol.

$19.3K Liq.

291

Ends in 16 days

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

1%

$4.8K Vol.

$9.0K Liq.

1

Ends in 16 days

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

8%

May 31

$1M Vol.

$21.6K Liq.

48

Ends in 16 days

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

12%

June 30

$613K Vol.

$10.9K Liq.

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

4%

$90.9K Vol.

$16.9K Liq.

14

Ends in about 2 months

US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15?

US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15?

<1%

$12.2K Vol.

$11.4K Liq.

1

Ends in about 7 hours

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

13%

$50.1K Vol.

$8.5K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

44%

December 31

$552K Vol.

$24.2K Liq.

11

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

-

$1 Vol.

$141 Liq.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

36%

5

$7M Vol.

$330K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?

Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?

53%

May 16

$132K Vol.

$102K today

$91.4K Liq.

4

Ends in 2 days

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

31%

$14.0K Vol.

$1.7K Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

59%

Likud

$2.3K Vol.

$19.9K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Malta Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory

Malta Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory

41%

Labour Party 5-10%

$1.1K Vol.

$27.0K Liq.

Ends in 15 days

Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. Haras El Hodood SC

Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. Haras El Hodood SC

56%

Kahrabaa Ismailia FC

$20.2K Vol.

$10.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A

100%

LPH Gaming

$31.8K Vol.

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

13%

June 30

$149K Vol.

$6.6K Liq.

30

Ends in about 2 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Hamas.

Polymarket currently hosts 103 active markets for Hamas that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $18.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 36% chance to 5. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Hamas predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.