Current trader consensus heavily favors no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 at 98.3% implied probability because continuous monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global telescope networks has identified no near-Earth objects of the required 30–50 meter diameter on collision courses for the remainder of the year. Recent orbital data and radar surveys reinforce this assessment, with no new threats emerging since earlier catalogs were updated. While an undetected asteroid could theoretically appear, existing survey cadence and follow-up protocols make a surprise impact this late in 2026 highly improbable absent major technical failures in detection systems.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Sim
2% chance
$116,343 Vol.
$116,343 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
2% chance
$116,343 Vol.
$116,343 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Current trader consensus heavily favors no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 at 98.3% implied probability because continuous monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global telescope networks has identified no near-Earth objects of the required 30–50 meter diameter on collision courses for the remainder of the year. Recent orbital data and radar surveys reinforce this assessment, with no new threats emerging since earlier catalogs were updated. While an undetected asteroid could theoretically appear, existing survey cadence and follow-up protocols make a surprise impact this late in 2026 highly improbable absent major technical failures in detection systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,343Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Current trader consensus heavily favors no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 at 98.3% implied probability because continuous monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global telescope networks has identified no near-Earth objects of the required 30–50 meter diameter on collision courses for the remainder of the year. Recent orbital data and radar surveys reinforce this assessment, with no new threats emerging since earlier catalogs were updated. While an undetected asteroid could theoretically appear, existing survey cadence and follow-up protocols make a surprise impact this late in 2026 highly improbable absent major technical failures in detection systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,343Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current trader consensus heavily favors no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 at 98.3% implied probability because continuous monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global telescope networks has identified no near-Earth objects of the required 30–50 meter diameter on collision courses for the remainder of the year. Recent orbital data and radar surveys reinforce this assessment, with no new threats emerging since earlier catalogs were updated. While an undetected asteroid could theoretically appear, existing survey cadence and follow-up protocols make a surprise impact this late in 2026 highly improbable absent major technical failures in detection systems.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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