Recent model releases from Google (Gemini 3.7 Flash), Anthropic (Claude Opus 5), and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek have kept the Arena.ai text leaderboard highly competitive heading into October, with tight gaps on math and coding benchmarks when style control filters out formatting advantages. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, assigning near-even implied probabilities across leading U.S. and select international labs while discounting others due to slower recent momentum or narrower capability edges. Key upcoming catalysts include potential flagship updates or API enhancements before the October resolution, as historical patterns show single strong benchmark gains can shift lab rankings by multiple positions in under a month. The market underscores how rapidly evolving large language model performance continues to compress leads among frontier labs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado#2 AI Lab no final de outubro? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
#2 AI Lab no final de outubro? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Meta 40%
Google 22%
OpenAI 17%
Anthropic 13%
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
Meta
40%
22%
OpenAI
17%
Anthropic
13%
Alibaba
10%
Z.ai
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
7%
DeepSeek
2%
ByteDance
2%
Meituan
2%
Nvidia
1%
StepFun
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Thinky
1%
Amazon
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
<1%
Meta 40%
Google 22%
OpenAI 17%
Anthropic 13%
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
Meta
$467 Vol.
40%
$2,730 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$522 Vol.
17%
Anthropic
$393 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$272 Vol.
10%
Z.ai
$249 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$119 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$287 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$107 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$259 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$144 Vol.
2%
Nvidia
$191 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$250 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$219 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$249 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$319 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$258 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$296 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$301 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$278 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$278 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from Google (Gemini 3.7 Flash), Anthropic (Claude Opus 5), and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek have kept the Arena.ai text leaderboard highly competitive heading into October, with tight gaps on math and coding benchmarks when style control filters out formatting advantages. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, assigning near-even implied probabilities across leading U.S. and select international labs while discounting others due to slower recent momentum or narrower capability edges. Key upcoming catalysts include potential flagship updates or API enhancements before the October resolution, as historical patterns show single strong benchmark gains can shift lab rankings by multiple positions in under a month. The market underscores how rapidly evolving large language model performance continues to compress leads among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$8,193Data de Término
31 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from Google (Gemini 3.7 Flash), Anthropic (Claude Opus 5), and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek have kept the Arena.ai text leaderboard highly competitive heading into October, with tight gaps on math and coding benchmarks when style control filters out formatting advantages. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, assigning near-even implied probabilities across leading U.S. and select international labs while discounting others due to slower recent momentum or narrower capability edges. Key upcoming catalysts include potential flagship updates or API enhancements before the October resolution, as historical patterns show single strong benchmark gains can shift lab rankings by multiple positions in under a month. The market underscores how rapidly evolving large language model performance continues to compress leads among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$8,193Data de Término
31 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases from Google (Gemini 3.7 Flash), Anthropic (Claude Opus 5), and Chinese labs such as DeepSeek have kept the Arena.ai text leaderboard highly competitive heading into October, with tight gaps on math and coding benchmarks when style control filters out formatting advantages. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, assigning near-even implied probabilities across leading U.S. and select international labs while discounting others due to slower recent momentum or narrower capability edges. Key upcoming catalysts include potential flagship updates or API enhancements before the October resolution, as historical patterns show single strong benchmark gains can shift lab rankings by multiple positions in under a month. The market underscores how rapidly evolving large language model performance continues to compress leads among frontier labs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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