Recent benchmark leadership from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1 with top scores on agentic coding, automation, and reasoning evaluations, underpins the 58.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max. Traders see its gains over Fable 5 and competitive edge versus Opus 5 variants as decisive for a September 14 snapshot, though the tight clustering around 48–50% for Opus 5-high, Opus 5-max, and Opus 4.6-high reflects ongoing debate over cost-performance trade-offs and consistent real-world agentic results. The market treats these odds as aggregated sentiment on which model will demonstrate superior verified capabilities by the resolution date.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMelhor modelo de IA em 14 de setembro?
Melhor modelo de IA em 14 de setembro?
Outro 50%
claude-opus-5-high 50%
claude-opus-4-6-high 49%
claude-opus-5-max 49%
NOVO
NOVO
14 set 2026
Outro
50%
claude-opus-5-high
50%
claude-opus-4-6-high
49%
claude-opus-5-max
49%
claude-fable-5.1-max
56%
Outro 50%
claude-opus-5-high 50%
claude-opus-4-6-high 49%
claude-opus-5-max 49%
NOVO
NOVO
14 set 2026
Outro
$0 Vol.
50%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 Vol.
50%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$0 Vol.
49%
claude-opus-5-max
$0 Vol.
49%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$40 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1 with top scores on agentic coding, automation, and reasoning evaluations, underpins the 58.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max. Traders see its gains over Fable 5 and competitive edge versus Opus 5 variants as decisive for a September 14 snapshot, though the tight clustering around 48–50% for Opus 5-high, Opus 5-max, and Opus 4.6-high reflects ongoing debate over cost-performance trade-offs and consistent real-world agentic results. The market treats these odds as aggregated sentiment on which model will demonstrate superior verified capabilities by the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$40Data de Término
14 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1 with top scores on agentic coding, automation, and reasoning evaluations, underpins the 58.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max. Traders see its gains over Fable 5 and competitive edge versus Opus 5 variants as decisive for a September 14 snapshot, though the tight clustering around 48–50% for Opus 5-high, Opus 5-max, and Opus 4.6-high reflects ongoing debate over cost-performance trade-offs and consistent real-world agentic results. The market treats these odds as aggregated sentiment on which model will demonstrate superior verified capabilities by the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$40Data de Término
14 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark leadership from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1 with top scores on agentic coding, automation, and reasoning evaluations, underpins the 58.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max. Traders see its gains over Fable 5 and competitive edge versus Opus 5 variants as decisive for a September 14 snapshot, though the tight clustering around 48–50% for Opus 5-high, Opus 5-max, and Opus 4.6-high reflects ongoing debate over cost-performance trade-offs and consistent real-world agentic results. The market treats these odds as aggregated sentiment on which model will demonstrate superior verified capabilities by the resolution date.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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