Traders see a 97% probability that Bill Gates will not face criminal charges by June 30 because no indictments, grand jury proceedings, or formal investigations by federal or state authorities have been announced or advanced in recent months. As a private citizen, Gates remains outside active prosecutorial scrutiny on matters that could produce charges within the narrow remaining window. Historical patterns show criminal charging decisions require documented evidence, warrants, and procedural steps that typically unfold over longer timelines than six weeks. The only realistic paths to a reversal would involve sudden new disclosures from unrelated probes or unforeseen legal actions by the DOJ or SEC, developments that have not materialized in public records and would need to accelerate dramatically to affect the outcome.