Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s January 2026 reaffirmation at the Progressive Conservative convention that he will seek a fourth consecutive term as party leader and premier has anchored trader expectations against an early exit by year-end. With the party holding a recent third straight majority and no active leadership review, caucus revolt, or resignation signals emerging, internal pressure remains minimal. Recent softening in provincial polling tied to the government jet purchase has narrowed the Liberal gap without triggering any formal challenge process or successor maneuvering. Historical patterns for Ontario PC incumbents further support continuity absent major scandal or electoral reversal ahead of the next fixed-date vote.