The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, with roughly 4,700 confirmed cases and a case fatality ratio near 47% as of mid-August, drives trader consensus toward "No" at 96.4% implied probability. Ebola’s requirement for direct bodily fluid contact, combined with official containment efforts and historical patterns showing only rare international cases over decades, limits pandemic-scale spread. While the WHO has declared a public health emergency of international concern and model projections highlight risks from delayed detection or low isolation rates, sustained transmission outside affected African regions remains improbable. New surveillance data or unexpected cross-border chains could still shift odds before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$691,966 Vol.
$691,966 Vol.
31 dez 2026
4% chance
$691,966 Vol.
$691,966 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, with roughly 4,700 confirmed cases and a case fatality ratio near 47% as of mid-August, drives trader consensus toward "No" at 96.4% implied probability. Ebola’s requirement for direct bodily fluid contact, combined with official containment efforts and historical patterns showing only rare international cases over decades, limits pandemic-scale spread. While the WHO has declared a public health emergency of international concern and model projections highlight risks from delayed detection or low isolation rates, sustained transmission outside affected African regions remains improbable. New surveillance data or unexpected cross-border chains could still shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$691,966Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, with roughly 4,700 confirmed cases and a case fatality ratio near 47% as of mid-August, drives trader consensus toward "No" at 96.4% implied probability. Ebola’s requirement for direct bodily fluid contact, combined with official containment efforts and historical patterns showing only rare international cases over decades, limits pandemic-scale spread. While the WHO has declared a public health emergency of international concern and model projections highlight risks from delayed detection or low isolation rates, sustained transmission outside affected African regions remains improbable. New surveillance data or unexpected cross-border chains could still shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$691,966Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, with roughly 4,700 confirmed cases and a case fatality ratio near 47% as of mid-August, drives trader consensus toward "No" at 96.4% implied probability. Ebola’s requirement for direct bodily fluid contact, combined with official containment efforts and historical patterns showing only rare international cases over decades, limits pandemic-scale spread. While the WHO has declared a public health emergency of international concern and model projections highlight risks from delayed detection or low isolation rates, sustained transmission outside affected African regions remains improbable. New surveillance data or unexpected cross-border chains could still shift odds before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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