**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 160-179 tweet bracket at 57.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s posts from August 11–18, 2026, with 180-199 trailing at 27.5%.** This positioning reflects Musk’s established weekly cadence of roughly 20–22 posts per day, sustained by routine engagement on X around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, Grok AI features, and broader tech commentary. Recent activity through August 17 aligns with this pace, showing consistent replies, quote posts, and original commentary without evident spikes or lulls from major breaking events. The market’s tight clustering around these mid-range outcomes highlights traders’ reliance on historical patterns and real-time posting volume as the period closes, rather than any single catalyst shifting momentum. Upcoming resolution tomorrow will confirm whether the final tally lands in the frontrunning bracket or edges higher.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado160-179 57%
180-199 28%
140-159 11.3%
200-219 2.1%
$1,863,507 Vol.
$1,863,507 Vol.
140-159
11%
160-179
57%
180-199
28%
200-219
2%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 57%
180-199 28%
140-159 11.3%
200-219 2.1%
$1,863,507 Vol.
$1,863,507 Vol.
140-159
11%
160-179
57%
180-199
28%
200-219
2%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 160-179 tweet bracket at 57.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s posts from August 11–18, 2026, with 180-199 trailing at 27.5%.** This positioning reflects Musk’s established weekly cadence of roughly 20–22 posts per day, sustained by routine engagement on X around SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, Grok AI features, and broader tech commentary. Recent activity through August 17 aligns with this pace, showing consistent replies, quote posts, and original commentary without evident spikes or lulls from major breaking events. The market’s tight clustering around these mid-range outcomes highlights traders’ reliance on historical patterns and real-time posting volume as the period closes, rather than any single catalyst shifting momentum. Upcoming resolution tomorrow will confirm whether the final tally lands in the frontrunning bracket or edges higher.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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