Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$672,559 Vol.
$672,559 Vol.
15 ago 2026
<40
Não
40-64
Sim
65-89
Não
90-114
Não
115-139
Não
140-164
Não
165-189
Não
190-214
Não
215-239
Não
240+
Não
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$672,559 Vol.
$672,559 Vol.
15 ago 2026
<40
$67,314 Vol.
Não
40-64
$182,042 Vol.
Sim
65-89
$131,438 Vol.
Não
90-114
$157,204 Vol.
Não
115-139
$67,368 Vol.
Não
140-164
$29,963 Vol.
Não
165-189
$22,072 Vol.
Não
190-214
$5,952 Vol.
Não
215-239
$4,949 Vol.
Não
240+
$4,257 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$672,559Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$672,559Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume posting on X, often exceeding 15–25 times daily during periods of product discussion or platform updates, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around the 40–64 tweet range for August 13–15. Recent activity, including multiple replies and announcements tied to the For You algorithm release and Grok capabilities on the 15th, aligns with this trajectory and reinforces market-implied odds near 100%. Historical precedent shows Musk rarely dips below 30–40 posts across similar three-day windows absent major travel or regulatory constraints, while the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets rewards accurate tracking of his cadence. An upset below 40 would require an unusually quiet stretch, such as focused offline commitments or self-imposed limits, which have occurred infrequently.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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