Elon Musk’s established X posting rhythm, with daily volumes typically landing in the 10–30 range during routine business weeks, anchors trader consensus around the sub-40 bucket for the three-day window. Recent SpaceX Falcon 9 launch cadence and related commentary have generated some replies and reposts, yet no major product announcements, regulatory hearings, or viral controversies have surfaced to spike volume above historical norms. Precedent from similar mid-August markets shows the same moderate band dominating implied odds once quiet periods set in, and the absence of any late-week catalysts keeps higher ranges priced near zero. Traders weigh the platform owner’s tendency toward focused engineering updates over constant engagement when setting these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado<40 62%
40-64 38%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$405,892 Vol.
$405,892 Vol.
17 ago 2026
<40
62%
40-64
38%
65-89
<1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
<40 62%
40-64 38%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$405,892 Vol.
$405,892 Vol.
17 ago 2026
<40
$110,165 Vol.
62%
40-64
$65,295 Vol.
38%
65-89
$77,255 Vol.
<1%
90-114
$67,031 Vol.
<1%
115-139
$48,694 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$16,923 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$8,347 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$3,264 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$4,806 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,113 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established X posting rhythm, with daily volumes typically landing in the 10–30 range during routine business weeks, anchors trader consensus around the sub-40 bucket for the three-day window. Recent SpaceX Falcon 9 launch cadence and related commentary have generated some replies and reposts, yet no major product announcements, regulatory hearings, or viral controversies have surfaced to spike volume above historical norms. Precedent from similar mid-August markets shows the same moderate band dominating implied odds once quiet periods set in, and the absence of any late-week catalysts keeps higher ranges priced near zero. Traders weigh the platform owner’s tendency toward focused engineering updates over constant engagement when setting these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$405,892Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established X posting rhythm, with daily volumes typically landing in the 10–30 range during routine business weeks, anchors trader consensus around the sub-40 bucket for the three-day window. Recent SpaceX Falcon 9 launch cadence and related commentary have generated some replies and reposts, yet no major product announcements, regulatory hearings, or viral controversies have surfaced to spike volume above historical norms. Precedent from similar mid-August markets shows the same moderate band dominating implied odds once quiet periods set in, and the absence of any late-week catalysts keeps higher ranges priced near zero. Traders weigh the platform owner’s tendency toward focused engineering updates over constant engagement when setting these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$405,892Data de Término
17 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established X posting rhythm, with daily volumes typically landing in the 10–30 range during routine business weeks, anchors trader consensus around the sub-40 bucket for the three-day window. Recent SpaceX Falcon 9 launch cadence and related commentary have generated some replies and reposts, yet no major product announcements, regulatory hearings, or viral controversies have surfaced to spike volume above historical norms. Precedent from similar mid-August markets shows the same moderate band dominating implied odds once quiet periods set in, and the absence of any late-week catalysts keeps higher ranges priced near zero. Traders weigh the platform owner’s tendency toward focused engineering updates over constant engagement when setting these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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