Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 2-4, driven by the tracking period's conclusion yesterday and transparent platform data confirming the exact count in that mid-range bin. As a pop culture powerhouse whose viral posts shape public discourse on tech, politics, and memes, Musk maintained his characteristic cadence of roughly 13-21 daily updates—fueled by routine SpaceX/Tesla/xAI shares—without controversy-sparked surges that historically push volumes higher. Absent fresh catalysts like election drama or product reveals in the past week, traders' skin-in-the-game bets reflect this steady pattern. Realistic upsets hinge on rare resolution disputes over post definitions (e.g., replies, quotes) or data glitches, though odds price such risks at just 0.1%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,702,369 Vol.
$1,702,369 Vol.
4 mai 2026
<40
Não
40-64
Sim
65-89
Não
90-114
Não
115-139
Não
140-164
Não
165-189
Não
190-214
Não
215-239
Não
240+
Não
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,702,369 Vol.
$1,702,369 Vol.
4 mai 2026
<40
$274,456 Vol.
Não
40-64
$357,768 Vol.
Sim
65-89
$397,895 Vol.
Não
90-114
$332,054 Vol.
Não
115-139
$168,071 Vol.
Não
140-164
$80,181 Vol.
Não
165-189
$27,544 Vol.
Não
190-214
$24,233 Vol.
Não
215-239
$22,004 Vol.
Não
240+
$18,164 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 2-4, driven by the tracking period's conclusion yesterday and transparent platform data confirming the exact count in that mid-range bin. As a pop culture powerhouse whose viral posts shape public discourse on tech, politics, and memes, Musk maintained his characteristic cadence of roughly 13-21 daily updates—fueled by routine SpaceX/Tesla/xAI shares—without controversy-sparked surges that historically push volumes higher. Absent fresh catalysts like election drama or product reveals in the past week, traders' skin-in-the-game bets reflect this steady pattern. Realistic upsets hinge on rare resolution disputes over post definitions (e.g., replies, quotes) or data glitches, though odds price such risks at just 0.1%.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,702,369Data de Término
4 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 2-4, driven by the tracking period's conclusion yesterday and transparent platform data confirming the exact count in that mid-range bin. As a pop culture powerhouse whose viral posts shape public discourse on tech, politics, and memes, Musk maintained his characteristic cadence of roughly 13-21 daily updates—fueled by routine SpaceX/Tesla/xAI shares—without controversy-sparked surges that historically push volumes higher. Absent fresh catalysts like election drama or product reveals in the past week, traders' skin-in-the-game bets reflect this steady pattern. Realistic upsets hinge on rare resolution disputes over post definitions (e.g., replies, quotes) or data glitches, though odds price such risks at just 0.1%.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,702,369Data de Término
4 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 2-4, driven by the tracking period's conclusion yesterday and transparent platform data confirming the exact count in that mid-range bin. As a pop culture powerhouse whose viral posts shape public discourse on tech, politics, and memes, Musk maintained his characteristic cadence of roughly 13-21 daily updates—fueled by routine SpaceX/Tesla/xAI shares—without controversy-sparked surges that historically push volumes higher. Absent fresh catalysts like election drama or product reveals in the past week, traders' skin-in-the-game bets reflect this steady pattern. Realistic upsets hinge on rare resolution disputes over post definitions (e.g., replies, quotes) or data glitches, though odds price such risks at just 0.1%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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