Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with a 9-3 July FOMC vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid dissenting calls for a hike, is anchoring trader sentiment toward no change or a 25-basis-point increase by December. Geopolitical energy price pressures and shifting projections—now implying potential tightening later in 2026 rather than easing—have elevated the market-implied odds for stability at 67.5%. Upcoming September FOMC minutes and August CPI data remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSem alteração 68%
25 bps increase 26%
25 bps decrease 7.1%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$151,891 Vol.
$151,891 Vol.
9 dez 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
Sem alteração
68%
25 bps increase
26%
50+ bps increase
1%
Sem alteração 68%
25 bps increase 26%
25 bps decrease 7.1%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$151,891 Vol.
$151,891 Vol.
9 dez 2026
50+ bps decrease
$27,610 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$37,646 Vol.
7%
Sem alteração
$36,450 Vol.
68%
25 bps increase
$27,536 Vol.
26%
50+ bps increase
$22,649 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with a 9-3 July FOMC vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid dissenting calls for a hike, is anchoring trader sentiment toward no change or a 25-basis-point increase by December. Geopolitical energy price pressures and shifting projections—now implying potential tightening later in 2026 rather than easing—have elevated the market-implied odds for stability at 67.5%. Upcoming September FOMC minutes and August CPI data remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$151,891Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with a 9-3 July FOMC vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid dissenting calls for a hike, is anchoring trader sentiment toward no change or a 25-basis-point increase by December. Geopolitical energy price pressures and shifting projections—now implying potential tightening later in 2026 rather than easing—have elevated the market-implied odds for stability at 67.5%. Upcoming September FOMC minutes and August CPI data remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$151,891Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with a 9-3 July FOMC vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid dissenting calls for a hike, is anchoring trader sentiment toward no change or a 25-basis-point increase by December. Geopolitical energy price pressures and shifting projections—now implying potential tightening later in 2026 rather than easing—have elevated the market-implied odds for stability at 67.5%. Upcoming September FOMC minutes and August CPI data remain key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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